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习访欧:欧洲面临在中美之间寻找微妙平衡的战略考验

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习近平五年来首次访问欧洲,寻找战略机遇Xi Visits Europe, Seeking Strategic Opportunity

ROGER COHEN, 储百亮2024年5月6日

中国国家主席习近平和夫人彭丽媛周日在巴黎南部的奥利机场。 习近平的欧洲之行正在考验欧洲大陆中美之间微妙的平衡行为。 POOL PHOTO BY STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN

On his first visit to Europe in five years, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, appears intent on seizing opportunities to loosen the continent’s bonds with the United States and forge a world freed of American dominance.

中国国家主席习近平五年来首次访欧,他似乎有意抓住机会去松动欧洲大陆与美国的密切关系,构建一个不由美国主导的世界。

The Chinese leader has chosen three countries to visit — France, Serbia and Hungary — that each, to a greater or lesser degree, look askance at America’s postwar ordering of the world, see China as a necessary counterweight and are eager to bolster economic ties.

这位中国领导人此次选择访问法国、塞尔维亚和匈牙利这三个国家,它们或多或少对美国建立的战后世界秩序持怀疑态度,将中国视为必要的平衡力量,并渴望加强与中国的经济联系。

At a time of tensions with much of Europe — over China’s “no limits” embrace of Russia despite the war in Ukraine, its surveillance state and its apparent espionage activities that led to the recent arrest in Germany of four people — Mr. Xi, who is arriving in France on Sunday, wants to demonstrate China’s growing influence on the continent and pursue a pragmatic rapprochement.

中国与欧洲大部分地区关系紧张,这是因为尽管俄罗斯对乌克兰发动了战争,但中国仍“无止境”地接受俄罗斯,再加上中国政府的国内监控,以及德国最近逮捕的四人似乎与中国的间谍活动有关。在这个时候,习近平于周日抵达法国。他想展示中国在欧洲大陆日益增长的影响力,寻求与欧洲国家务实的和解。

For Europe, the visit will test its delicate balancing act between China and the United States, and will no doubt be seen in Washington as a none-too-subtle effort by Mr. Xi to divide Western allies.

对欧洲来说,习近平的访问将考验欧洲在中美之间寻找微妙平衡的战略,而毫无疑问的是,美国将把此次访问视为习近平分裂西方盟友的明显努力。

He has timed his arrival at his second stop, Serbia, to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the deadly NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war. That mistaken strike on May 7, 1999, for which the White House apologized, killed three Chinese journalists and ignited furious protests around the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.

习近平此行的第二站是塞尔维亚,他抵达那里的时间恰好是北约在科索沃战争期间轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆的25周年纪念日。事情发生在1999年5月7日,轰炸导致三名中国记者死亡,并引发了中国人在美国驻华大使馆周围举行愤怒的抗议活动,白宫曾为那次错误打击道歉。

“For Xi, being in Belgrade is a very economical way to ask if the United States is really serious about international law,” said Janka Oertel, the director of the Asia program at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, “and to say, how about NATO overreach as a problem for other countries?”

“对习近平来说,此时去贝尔格莱德是以一种非常经济的方式质疑美国是否真把国际法当真,”位于柏林的欧洲外交关系委员会亚洲项目主任扬卡·厄特尔说。“同时提出北约过度扩张对其他国家来说是个问题的观点。”

The Chinese government has continued to commemorate the Belgrade bombing, using it as an occasion to denounce what it sees as Western hypocrisy and bullying.

中国政府每年都会纪念贝尔格莱德使馆被爆事件,将其作为谴责西方虚伪和霸凌的机会。


一个纪念碑标志着中国大使馆在塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德曾经的位置,该建筑已在北约1993年的一次轰炸中被炸毁。 LAURA BOUSHNAK FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

“The United States always views itself as the leader — or hegemon — of the world, so China is a competitor or adversary that is challenging its hegemony,” said Tu Xinquan, the dean of a trade institute at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. “The European Union does not have a hegemonic mind-set.”

“美国总是将自己视为世界的领导者或霸主,这是美国视中国为挑战其霸主地位的竞争者或对手的原因,”对外经济贸易大学贸易学院院长屠新泉在北京说。“欧盟没有霸主心态。”

The official doctrine of the 27-member European Union defines China as “a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor and a systemic rival.” If that seems a mouthful, and a perhaps contradictory one, it is because the continent is torn between how to balance economic opportunity in China with national security risk, cybersecurity risk and economic risk to various industries.

由27个成员国组成的欧盟已在其官方政策文件中将中国定位为“合作伙伴、经济竞争者,以及制度性对手”。如果说这个定位听起来拗口,而且可能有矛盾的话,那是因为欧洲各国在如何平衡与中国的经济机会与自身的国家安全风险、网络安全风险,以及中国对欧洲的各行业构成的经济风险之间左右为难。

In March, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, told reporters that Europe’s formula was unworkable. “It’s like driving to a crossing and finding the red, yellow and green lights all on at the same time,” he said. “How can one drive on?”

中国外交部长王毅曾在今年3月对记者说,欧洲的对华政策行不通。“就好比汽车开到十字路口,红灯、黄灯、绿灯三种信号灯同时亮起,”他说。“这车还怎么开?”

Now, Mr. Xi would like to ease the lights toward green.

现在,习近平想让信号灯逐渐变绿。

To that end, Mr. Xi’s first and most important stop will be in France, whose president, Emmanuel Macron, has often made the Gaullist point that Europe “must never be a vassal of the United States,” as he did last month at a speech at the Sorbonne. The French leader insists that the survival of the European Union depends on “strategic autonomy” and developing the military resilience to become a “Europe power.” He rejects the notion of “equidistance” between China and the United States — France is one of America’s oldest allies — but wants to keep his options open.

为了这个目的,习近平此行的第一站、也是最重要的一站是法国。法国总统马克龙已经常提戴高乐主义观点,那就是欧洲“决不能成为美国的附庸”,他上个月在索邦大学发表讲话时就曾这样说。这名法国领导人坚称,欧盟的生存取决于“战略自主”以及发展出成为“欧洲力量”的军事适应能力。虽然马克龙拒绝在中美国之间保持“等距离”的观念(法国是美国历史最悠久的盟友之一),但他想保留选择余地。

All of this is music to Mr. Xi’s ears.

这一切对习近平来说都是好消息。

“Macron is trying to bring a third way in the current global chaos,” said Philippe Le Corre, a prominent French expert on relations with China. “He is trying to walk a fine line between the two main superpowers.”

“马克龙正试图在当前的全球混乱中开辟第三条道路,”法国著名的对华关系专家陆克(Philippe Le Corre)说。“他正试图在两个主要超级大国之间找到一个微妙的平衡。”

Just over a year ago, Mr. Macron was lavishly entertained during a visit to China that ended with a Sino-French declaration of a “global strategic partnership.” The French leader echoed the Chinese lexicon of a “multipolar” world, freed of “blocs” and the “Cold War mentality.”

就在一年多前,马克龙访华期间受到了盛情款待,中法在那次访问结束时宣布建立“全球战略伙伴关系”。这名法国领导人重复了中国有关“多边”世界、反对“阵营对抗”和“冷战思维”的说法。


法国总统马克龙去年在中国与习近平见面。马克龙将于周一在巴黎为习近平来访举行国宴。 POOL PHOTO BY NG HAN GUAN

Now, in anticipation of Mr. Xi’s visit, China has praised France as a great power and expressed hopes that their ties “will always be at the forefront of China’s relations with Western countries,” in the words of Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, in People’s Daily.

现在,在习近平访法之际,中国称赞法国是个强国,希望中法关系“始终走在中国同西方国家关系前列”,这是中国驻法国大使卢沙野发表在《人民日报》上的说法。

Mr. Macron, who recently warned that “our Europe is mortal” and will be saved only if it can become “sovereign,” will host a state dinner for Mr. Xi on Monday in Paris before, in a personal touch, ushering him to a favorite childhood haunt in the Pyrenees.

马克龙最近警告说,“我们的欧洲不能永生”,欧洲只有变为“主权体”才能得到拯救。他将于周一在巴黎为习近平来访举行国宴,然后带后者去比利牛斯山脉一个他小时候最喜爱去的地方,为访问增添一些个人色彩。

The chemistry between the two men appears to lie essentially in a shared view that the postwar order is moribund and must be replaced by a new architecture that takes account of shifting power. That Mr. Xi is almost certainly the most repressive and authoritarian leader in recent Chinese history, and that China’s military threats to Taiwan have intensified, has not come between the two leaders.

两人的关系似乎在本质上基于一个共同观念,那就是战后秩序已濒临崩溃,需要用一个顾及力量转移的新框架来取代。习近平几乎毫无疑问是中国近代历史上最严厉、最专制的领导人,中国已加强了对台湾的军事威胁,但这些并没有影响这两位领导人之间的关系。

In the past six months, Mr. Macron has visited both India and Brazil in a push to place France at a fulcrum between the BRICS group of developing countries, which includes China, and Western powers. At a time of growing tension between the “Global South” and Western powers, he sees France as a bridge.

马克龙在过去六个月里访问了印度和巴西,力图将法国推到金砖国家集团与西方大国之间的支点位置上,金砖国家集团包括中国。在“全球南方”与西方大国的关系日益紧张的时候,马克龙将法国视为消除隔阂的桥梁。

From France, Mr. Xi will move on to the warm embrace of Serbia, where China is the second largest trading partner, and Hungary, where its prime minister, Viktor Orban, has backed enormous Chinese investment and used his country’s position as a European Union member to dilute criticism of China. Both countries bridle at American power.

习近平离开法国后将前往塞尔维亚和匈牙利,他将在两国受到热情款待。中国是塞尔维亚的第二大贸易伙伴,而匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克多支持来自中国的巨额投资,并利用欧盟成员国的地位淡化欧盟对中国的批评。这两个国家都对美国的力量感到不满。

Beyond these two friends of China, there are, however, serious European differences with Beijing, whose economy was roughly the same size, measured in dollars, as the European Union’s when Mr. Xi last visited in 2019. China’s economy is now some 15 percent bigger.

然而,除了在欧盟的这两个朋友外,欧中之间存在着严重分歧。习近平上次访欧是2019年,当时,中国以美元计算的经济规模与欧盟的大致相同。中国现在的经济规模比欧盟的大15%左右。

Last fall, the European Union opened an investigation into whether electric vehicles made in China benefited from unfair subsidies, with a decision expected by this summer. That has caused tensions with Beijing and with Germany, whose presence in the Chinese auto market dwarfs that of other European countries. China accounts for at least half of Volkswagen’s annual profits.

去年秋天,欧盟对中国制造的电动汽车是否受益于不公平补贴展开了调查,预计将在今年夏天做出裁决。这已导致欧盟与中国关系紧张,也在德国引起不安,德国在中国汽车市场上的份额远超其他欧洲国家。大众汽车的年利润至少一半来自中国。

German manufacturers, with plants in China, fear that any imposition of European tariffs could affect its own exports from China, as well as cause tit-for-tat retaliation.

德国汽车制造商在中国设有工厂,它们担心,欧洲对中国生产的汽车征收关税可能会影响它们从中国的出口,并引发中国采取针锋相对的报复措施。


大众汽车存放在上海的待售汽车,摄于去年。该公司一半的利润来自中国。 QILAI SHEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

The European Union Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, will join the talks in Paris with Mr. Xi. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, whose relations with Mr. Macron have been strained, dined with the French president in Paris this week. All of this is clearly part of an attempt to forge a united European front.

欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩将前往巴黎参加与习近平的会晤。虽然德国总理肖尔茨与马克龙的关系一直紧张,但他本周在巴黎与法国总统共进了晚餐。所有这一切显然是欧洲结成统一战线努力的一部分。

That, however, is always elusive.

但欧洲的统一战线总是难以实现。

Anger toward Russia in Europe runs highest in frontline states with Russia, like Poland and the Baltic States. They are perhaps the most fiercely attached to the alliance with the United States that Mr. Macron wants to offset by building a sovereign Europe. They are also the most wary of China, which has never condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine.

对俄罗斯的愤怒在与俄罗斯接壤的欧洲国家最为强烈,比如波兰和波罗的海国家。它们也许最热衷于与美国结盟,马克龙想通过建立一个主权欧洲来抵消这种结盟。这些国家也对中国最为警惕,它一直都没有谴责俄罗斯对乌克兰发动战争。

Mr. Macron, like Mr. Scholz during a visit to China last month, believes that Chinese leverage in bringing an end to the war in Ukraine is critical. Only Beijing, in the French analysis, can bring real pressure to bear on President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who will be sworn in for a fifth term during Mr. Xi’s European visit.

与上个月曾访华的肖尔茨一样,马克龙认为在结束乌克兰战争上中国的影响力至关重要。在法国人的分析中,只有中国政府能对俄罗斯总统普京施加真正的压力,普京将在习近平访欧期间宣誓就职,开始第五个总统任期。

The issue, as it was last year during Mr. Macron’s visit to Beijing, is that China has shown little or no inclination to do so. Indeed, Mr. Xi is scheduled to host Mr. Putin in China later this month.

与马克龙去年访华时的问题一样,中国没有表现出多少或根本没有表现出对俄罗斯施压的意愿。实际上,习近平已定于本月晚些时候在中国接待普京。

“It’s hard to imagine another discussion on Ukraine,” François Godement, a special adviser and resident senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne in Paris, said of the talks between Mr. Macron and Mr. Xi. “Those dice have been rolled.”

“很难想象他们会再次讨论乌克兰问题,”弗朗索瓦·戈德芒在谈到马克龙与习近平将要举行的会谈时说,他是巴黎蒙泰涅研究所的特别顾问兼常驻高级研究员。“那个问题已经有了结论。”

Still, there is little doubt that Mr. Macron will try again to enlist Mr. Xi’s support ahead of a Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland in mid-June.

尽管如此,几乎没有疑问的是,马克龙将再次争取得到习近平的支持,因为今年6月中旬将在瑞士举行乌克兰和平会议。

At a deeper level, Mr. Macron appears certain to try to use Mr. Xi’s visit to advance an agenda that guarantees Europe’s relevance in the coming decades. He is wary of a United States that may re-elect former President Donald J. Trump in November, with unpredictable consequences.

从更深层次来看,马克龙似乎肯定会试图利用习近平的访问来推进欧洲在未来几十年的世界事务中保持相关性的议程。他对可能在今年11月再次把前总统特朗普选为总统的美国持谨慎态度,因为那将带来不可预测的后果。

Mr. Wang, the Chinese foreign minister, has said, “As long as China and Europe join hands, bloc confrontation will not occur, the world will not fall apart, and a new Cold War will not take place.”

中国外交部长王毅已表示,“只要中欧携手,阵营对抗就不会出现,世界分裂就不会发生,‘新冷战’就打不起来。”

For all of the fundamental differences in governance between China’s one-party state and Western liberal democracy, the leaders of the three European countries Mr. Xi has chosen to visit appear to embrace that Chinese statement.

尽管中国是一党专制国家,与西方的自由民主国家在治理上有根本的不同,但习近平选择访问的三个欧洲国家的领导人似乎都欣然接受中国的上述说法。

Roger Cohen是《纽约时报》巴黎分社社长。他已经在时报工作了33年,曾担任驻外记者、国际新闻编辑和观点版面专栏作家。2023年,他作为报道乌克兰战争的时报团队成员获得了普利策奖和乔治波尔克奖。点击查看更多关于他的信息。

储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者,在台北报道中国和台湾问题,重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。


翻译:纽约时报中文网


点击查看本文英文版。

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