随着增长趋势放缓和下行风险增加，10 月份房屋价值上涨 1.5%

TIM LAWLESS

2021 年 11 月 1 日

澳大利亚房价在 10 月份上涨了 1.5%，与 8 月和 9 月的结果相似。然而，将月度变化去掉另一个小数点后表明，自 3 月份的月度增长率达到峰值（2.8%）以来，市场继续缓慢失去动力。在全国范围内，10 月份的月度增长率从上月的 1.51% 放缓至 1.49%。

尽管在全国范围内，本月总体增长读数几乎保持不变，但澳大利亚广泛地区的市场状况开始显示出一些多样性。珀斯录得自去年 6 月以来的首次负月度业绩，房价下跌 -0.1%。另一方面，布里斯班已成为增长最快的市场，10 月份房价上涨了 2.5%。紧随其后的是阿德莱德和霍巴特，这两个住宅市场的价值在本月均上涨了 2.0%。在悉尼和墨尔本，月增长率自 2021 年 3 月创下的高点以来已经减半，当时它们分别达到了 3.7% 和 2.4% 的月增长率。

在郊区市场中，新南威尔士州 (2.1%) 和昆士兰州 (1.9%) 领跑资本收益步伐，而西澳大利亚州是唯一录得房屋价值小幅下跌 (-0.1%) 的州内其他地区.

CoreLogic 的研究主管 Tim Lawless 表示，增长放缓是住房负担能力恶化、供应水平上升和刺激措施减少的一个因素。 “房价继续以大约 12:1 的比例超过工资。这就是为什么首次购房者在住房需求中所占的比例越来越小的原因之一。自 9 月的近期低点以来，新上市的房屋数量激增了 47%，而 HomeBuilder 和印花税优惠等以住房为重点的刺激措施现已到期。将这些因素与定于 11 月 1 日微妙收紧信贷评估相结合，房地产市场很可能会继续逐渐失去动力。”

尽管月度增长速度正在放缓，但年度趋势继续上升，这是整个 2021 年初增长状况更加强劲的一个因素。截至 10 月的一年中，全国房价上涨了 21.6%，其中一半的首都录得年度增长增长率超过20%。在澳大利亚的广大地区，塔斯马尼亚地区的年度资本收益在全国领先，住宅价值上涨了 29.1%。

与独立屋相比，单元房市场总体上继续保持较低的增长率，这一趋势在年度业绩中最为明显。在最大的首府城市，悉尼房价上涨了惊人的 30.4%，而单元房价值上涨了 13.6%，而墨尔本房价同比上涨了 19.5%，而单元房价值上涨了 9.2%。这种趋势在澳大利亚的偏远地区不太明显，那里的房屋和单元之间的性能差距相对较小。
根据 Lawless 先生的说法，“随着住房变得越来越难以负担，我们预计会有更多的需求转向市场中密度较高的领域，尤其是在悉尼，那里的房屋中值与单元房价值之间的差距现在接近 500,000 澳元。随着投资者成为新住房融资的更大组成部分，我们可能会看到更多的需求流入中高密度房产。随着海外边界的开放，整个单元房的投资者需求可能会得到提振，这可能会对租赁需求产生积极影响，尤其是内城单元房区域。”

郊区市场再次录得比首府城市更强劲的走势，10 月份房价上涨 1.9%，而首府城市房价上涨 1.4%。

来自 10 月房屋价值指数的其他重要见解：

尽管基数极低，但房产挂牌量终于开始上升。
新挂牌量的增加超过了买家的需求，将可供出售的房屋和单位总数推高至 141,786 套；活跃挂牌量较 9 月中旬的近期低点增加了 6.8%。
10 月份全国租金上涨 0.7%，大致相当于 9 月份的读数（0.6%），但低于今年早些时候的租金增长趋势。
尽管房价和租金的增长率都在放缓，但我们很可能会看到未来几个月房价的上涨速度继续快于租金。

总体而言，澳大利亚的房地产市场继续保持高于平均水平的增长率，但有明显迹象表明市场正在继续降温。

不仅增长率仍在放缓，而且在住房需求可能因信贷条件收紧和负担能力恶化而受到抑制的情况下，我们还看到更多的房源上市。

Housing values 1.5% higher in October as growth trends ease and downside risk builds
Tim Lawless
1 Nov 2021

Australian housing values rose 1.5% in October, a similar result to August and September. However, taking the monthly change out another decimal point shows the market is continuing to slowly lose momentum since moving through a peak monthly rate of growth in March (2.8%). Nationally, the monthly growth rate eased to 1.49% in October from 1.51% in the previous month.  
Although nationally the headline growth reading remains virtually unchanged over the month, across the broad regions of Australia market conditions are starting to show some diversity.  Perth recorded its first negative monthly result since June last year, with values nudging -0.1% lower. At the other end of the spectrum, Brisbane has taken over as the fastest growing market with housing values up 2.5% in October. This was followed by Adelaide and Hobart, with both dwelling markets increasing 2.0% in value over the month.  In Sydney and Melbourne, the monthly rate of growth has more than halved since the highs seen in March 2021, when they reached a monthly growth rate of 3.7% and 2.4% respectively.
Across the regional markets, New South Wales (2.1%) and Queensland (1.9%) led the pace of capital gains while Western Australia was the only broad rest-of-state region to record a marginal fall in housing values (-0.1%).  
According to CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, slowing growth conditions are a factor of worsening housing affordability, rising supply levels, and less stimulus.  “Housing prices continue to outpace wages by a ratio of about 12:1. This is one of the reasons why first home buyers are becoming a progressively smaller component of housing demand.  New listings have surged by 47% since the recent low in September and housing focused stimulus such as HomeBuilder and stamp duty concessions have now expired.  Combining these factors with the subtle tightening of credit assessments set for November 1, and it’s highly likely the housing market will continue to gradually lose momentum.”
Although the monthly pace of growth is easing, the annual trend has continued to rise, which is a factor of the stronger growth conditions throughout early 2021.  Nationally home values are up 21.6% over the year to October, with half the capitals recording an annual growth rate in excess of 20%.  Across the broad regions of Australia, regional Tasmania has led the nation for the pace of annual capital gains with dwelling values rising by 29.1%.  
Unit markets have generally continued to record a lower rate of growth relative to houses, with this trend most evident in the annual results.  In the largest capitals, Sydney house values are up a stunning 30.4% compared to a 13.6% rise in unit values, while in Melbourne house values rose 19.5% over the year compared with a 9.2% gain in unit values.  This trend is less evident across regional areas of Australia where the performance gap between houses and units is relatively small. 
Index results as at October 31, 2021
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According to Mr Lawless, “As housing becomes less affordable, we expect to see more demand deflected towards the higher density sectors of the market, especially in Sydney where the gap between the median house and unit value is now close to $500,000.  With investors becoming a larger component of new housing finance, we may see more demand flowing into medium to high density properties.  Investor demand across the unit sector could be bolstered as overseas borders open, which is likely to have a positive impact on rental demand, especially across inner city unit precincts.”
Regional markets have once again recorded a stronger trajectory than the capitals, with housing values up 1.9% in October compared to a 1.4% rise in capital city values. 
Other key insights from the October Home Value Index:
Property listings are finally starting to lift, albeit from an extremely low base.  The rise in new listings has outweighed buyer demand, pushing the total number of houses and units available for sale to 141,786; a 6.8% increase in active listings from the recent mid-September low.National rents were up 0.7% in October, roughly equivalent to the September reading (0.6%), but lower than the trend rate of rental growth earlier this year.   Although the rate of growth in both housing values and rents are easing, we are likely to see housing prices continue to rise faster than rents over the coming months.  

Overall, Australia’s housing market is continuing to record an above average rate of growth, but there are clear signs that the market is continuing to cool. 
Not only is the rate of growth still easing, but we are also seeing more listings come on the market at a time when housing demand is likely to be dented by tighter credit conditions and worsening affordability.

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