普丁放棄新帝國幻想烏克蘭和平才有得談

畢爾德（Carl Bildt） 2023年12月28日

畢爾德（Carl Bildt）
●瑞典前總理
●瑞典前外交部長

Putin’s Dead-End
【】
Dec 19, 2023
CARL BILDT
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of conquest in Ukraine has failed spectacularly, he remains committed to the fantasy that the old Russian Empire can be recreated. That means neither Ukraine nor the rest of Europe will have peace until he and his political project are soundly defeated.

STOCKHOLM – In his annual press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that he will be ready for a peace settlement with Ukraine only after he has achieved his goals, which have not changed since he launched his full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. He wants Ukraine to be demilitarized, meaning subjected to Russian military and security control of its territory; and he wants “denazification,” meaning Ukraine would be put under Russian political control. In other words, Russia would absorb Ukraine so that the latter ceases to exist as an independent nation-state.

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Time and again, Putin has declared that there is no historical justification for Ukraine, since it comprises territories that were long held by the Russian Empire. But something similar can be said of countries across Europe today. Many previously fell under the yoke of the Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, Wilhelmine, or Russian empires. And globally, the vast majority of the 193 countries that make up the United Nations became independent only in the aftermath of World War II. In the historical period that preoccupies Putin, many of today’s countries did not exist even in people’s imaginations.

The problem, for Putin, is that the age of empires is long gone. He stubbornly refuses to accept that we now live in the age of nation-states, with an international order organized around the UN Charter’s principle of territorial integrity, which prohibits any redrawing of national borders by force. Instead, he fantasizes about recreating the Russian Empire by swallowing up Ukraine and Belarus (followed, perhaps, by many other neighboring countries).

When Putin launched his war of conquest, he obviously expected Ukraine to fold quickly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was to be dispensed with, and a Russian puppet government was to be installed within the space of a few weeks.

But that plan failed spectacularly. Ukraine’s population – especially its armed forces – refused to bow down to the wannabe Czar. Instead, Ukrainians united in fierce resistance, preserving control of their capital and then gradually taking back around half of the territory that Russia’s forces had initially occupied. Relying on missiles and drones, Ukraine has effectively put Russia’s Black Sea fleet out of action, and its air defenses have succeeded in creating a virtual no-fly zone over the country.

While Western financial support and military supplies have undoubtedly been critical to Ukraine’s defense, what matters most are the Ukrainian people’s high morale and determination to defend their country. With Russia holding a presidential election in March, Putin needs to make a credible argument that victory in his war is not a pipedream. He has put Russia’s economy on a war footing, mobilized 400,000 men, cranked up the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, and taken repression of dissent to new post-Soviet heights.

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But none of that will win him the war. His heavily battered army seems incapable of making any meaningful advances against Ukrainian defensive lines. His only hope is that the Ukrainian people’s determination to resist will waver, and that “war fatigue” will continue to build in Europe and the United States. Once the Western financial and military support has dried up, Ukrainian morale will evaporate, and his forces will be able to advance, imprisoning, deporting, or simply executing anyone who still resists.

Yet if Putin thinks this scenario would bring peace, he is gravely mistaken. His advancing armies already committed mass atrocities in the initial invasion, and they would do so again. But these horrors would galvanize political will in the rest of Europe, as would the flood of millions more Ukrainian refugees westward. Though European governments’ responses are difficult to predict, they most certainly would not be aimed at securing peace with Russia. Far more likely is an even wider and more prolonged conflict, where the outcome would ultimately be decided by Europe’s economic and industrial strength, irrespective of changing US attitudes.

In short, there simply is no way for Putin to win the war that he started. Peace will come only when he is defeated – only when the Ukrainians (with Western help) have succeeded in defending themselves, and when Russians see that Putin’s insane war has jeopardized their own future.

It is impossible to predict when this will happen. For now, Putin seems satisfied that he hasn’t been militarily defeated yet. He is trying to exude confidence in his war effort, even though it is nowhere close to achieving any of his stated goals. But this performance can last only so long. Sooner or later, the grim reality of what he has done to Russia will become impossible to hide.

One day, when Russia finally abandons Putin’s neo-imperial illusion, it will start to focus on its own future as an independent nation-state among independent nation-states, including Ukraine and Belarus. Only then will it be possible to talk about peace.

普丁放棄新帝國幻想烏克蘭和平才有得談

畢爾德（Carl Bildt） 2023年12月28日

畢爾德（Carl Bildt）
●瑞典前總理
●瑞典前外交部長

俄羅斯總統普丁在年度記者會上，明確表示只有在實踐自己的目標之後，他才打算與烏克蘭達成和平解決方案。自2022年2月24日全面入侵烏克蘭以來，他的目標始終未變：他希望烏克蘭「去軍事化」，也就是烏克蘭領土須受俄羅斯的軍事和安全控制；他想要「去納粹化」，也就是烏克蘭需處於俄羅斯的政治控制下。換句話說，俄羅斯將吞併烏克蘭，烏克蘭將不再是獨立的民族國家。

普丁再三宣稱，烏克蘭的存在沒有歷史依據，因為烏克蘭領土在過去曾長期隸屬於俄羅斯帝國。但類似情況在現今歐洲國家中比比皆是。許多國家過去曾受鄂圖曼帝國、奧匈帝國、神聖羅馬帝國或俄羅斯帝國的奴役。就全球而言，聯合國成員的193個國家當中，絕大多數是在二戰之後才獨立。在普丁所關注的歷史時期，人們甚至無法想像會有今天這許多國家。

普丁的問題在於，帝國時代已一去不復返，但他卻頑固地抗拒接受現在是民族國家的時代，國際秩序是按《聯合國憲章》領土完整原則所建構，而禁止以武力重新劃定國界。相反的，普丁妄想透過吞併烏克蘭和白俄羅斯（接下來可能還有許多其他鄰國）來重建俄羅斯帝國。 

當普丁發動征服戰爭時，顯然預期烏克蘭會迅速潰敗，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基職務不保，而俄羅斯傀儡政府將在數周內成立。

但這個計劃卻潰不成軍。烏克蘭人（尤其是武裝部隊）拒絕向一心想成為沙皇的普丁臣服，相反的，他們團結起來、激烈抵抗，保住首都基輔，然後逐漸光復約半數在初期遭到俄軍佔領的失土。靠著飛彈和無人機，烏克蘭有效地擊垮俄羅斯黑海艦隊，其防空系統更成功在烏克蘭上空建立虛擬禁飛區。

就烏克蘭國防而言，雖然西方金援及軍事物資無疑是關鍵助力，但最重要的還是烏克蘭人士氣高昂，決心保家衛國。俄羅斯明年3月將舉行總統大選，普丁需要提出可信論據，以證明在俄烏戰爭中致勝並非白日夢。他已讓俄羅斯經濟處於戰備狀態、動員40萬人、啟動克里姆林宮的宣傳機器，且對異議的鎮壓更已達後蘇聯時代的新高度。

但這些做法都無法讓他打贏戰爭。他的軍隊已受重創，似乎無法有效突破烏克蘭防線。他的唯一希望在於烏克蘭人的抵抗決心出現動搖，而歐洲和美國的「戰爭疲勞」日益加劇。一旦西方的財政和軍事支持枯竭，烏克蘭就會士氣大跌，俄軍將能推進、監禁、驅逐或直接處決任何仍然抵抗的人。

但若普丁認為這種情況將帶來和平，那他就大錯特錯了。他的軍隊在入侵初期已犯下大規模暴行，他們將會重蹈覆轍。這些恐怖暴行和數以百萬計向西逃的烏克蘭難民，都將激勵歐洲其他國家的政治意志。儘管歐洲各國政府的反應難以預料，但肯定不會是要確保與俄羅斯和平相處。更有可能的結果，將是範圍更廣、為期更長的衝突，最終取決於歐洲的經濟和工業實力，而無論美國態度如何改變。

簡而言之，普丁根本不可能打贏這場自己發起的戰爭。只有當普丁被擊敗時，只有當烏克蘭人（在西方的協助下）成功保衛自己時，只有當俄羅斯人看到普丁的瘋狂戰爭已危及自身未來時，和平才會到來。

我們無法預測這種情況何時會發生。目前，普丁似乎對自己在軍事上尚未被擊敗感到滿意。他試圖表現出對於這場戰爭充滿信心，儘管距離實現其任何既定目標仍是遙遙無期。但這種表現無法永遠持續下去。遲早，他將無法再隱藏自己害俄羅斯落入的殘酷現實。

有朝一日，俄羅斯最終將放棄普丁的新帝國幻想，而開始著眼自己身處於烏克蘭和白俄羅斯等眾多獨立民族國家之間、身為一個獨立民族國家的未來。唯有在這種情況下，和平才有得談。
《上报》（翻譯：吳巧曦，責任編輯：楊淑華）