货币政策仍然有利于房价增长，但逆风可能即将到来
Eliza Owen
5 Oct 2021
今日澳洲联储维持目前的货币政策设定，现金利率目标维持在0.1%，结汇余额利率维持在0.0%。同样，政府证券购买率也没有变化，预计至少在明年 2 月中旬之前每周购买 40 亿澳元。

低现金利率目标导致典型抵押贷款利率持续下降，支持住宅房地产价值在截至 9 月的 12 个月内上涨 20.3%。

目前经济状况不利于提高现金利率，澳大利亚央行坚持认为，在此情景下，提高现金利率目标所需的条件要到 2024 年才能满足。 澳大利亚的工资价格指数上涨截至 6 月的一年中为 1.7%，核心通胀率仍低于 2-3% 的目标区间，约为 1.75%。最近与 COVID-19 的 delta 变体相关的封锁也可能推迟了劳动力市场进一步收紧、更高的工资增长和持续的高核心通胀时期的预期时间。

虽然货币政策可能会继续支持房价上涨，但未来的房地产市场增长存在阻力。

这些不利因素之一是信贷条件收紧。最近几个月，澳联储重申房价不是澳联储的直接责任领域。
事实上，与高住房需求相关的财富效应和交易活动的增加可能在整个 COVID-19 期间支撑了经济状况。
然而，人们越来越预期住房贷款空间可能会出现一些宏观审慎干预。在今天的声明中，RBA 直接提到了在当前环境下适当的贷款可偿还性缓冲的重要性。

在此之前，澳大利亚央行发布了住房债务比率，该比率显示自住业主的住房债务与收入比率为 102%，创历史新高。澳大利亚央行数据还显示，截至 2021 年 6 月的一年中，住房信贷增长了 5.6%，而国民账户数据显示，同期收入仅增长了 1.6%。 APRA 的 ADI 季度房地产风险数据表明，大约 22% 的新抵押贷款的债务收入比为 6 或更高。这也可能成为更审慎的贷款条件的重点。

还值得注意的是，虽然截至 9 月份的月度住房市场升值一直强劲，达到 1.5%，但这实际上是自今年 1 月以来最慢的月度升幅。负担能力的限制似乎已经在缓解市场势头，房地产价值的月增长率可能会在 2021 年 3 月达到顶峰。
Monetary policy remains conducive to house price growth, but headwinds could be on the horizon
Eliza Owen
5 Oct 2021
Today the RBA maintained its current monetary policy settings, with the cash rate target remaining at 0.1%, and the interest rate on exchange settlement balances at 0.0%. Likewise there was no change to the rate of government securities purchases with purchases expected to continue at $4 billion per week until at least mid-February of next year. 
The low cash rate target has induced a continued decline in typical mortgage rates, supporting an increase in residential real estate values of 20.3% in the 12 months to September. 
Economic conditions are not currently conducive to an increase in the cash rate, and the RBA maintains the view that, under a central scenario, the conditions required for an increase to the cash rate target would not be met until 2024. Australia’s wage price index increased 1.7% over the year to June, and core inflation remained below the 2-3% target band at around 1.75%. The recent lockdowns associated with the delta variant of COVID-19 may also have pushed out expected timings for further tightening in the labour market, higher wages growth and a sustained period of high core inflation. 
While monetary policy could continue to support increases in housing values, there are headwinds to future housing market growth.
One of these headwinds is tighter credit conditions. In recent months, the RBA has reiterated that house prices are not an area of direct responsibility for the RBA. In fact, the rising wealth effects and transaction activity associated with high housing demand has likely supported economic conditions throughout COVID-19.  However, there is mounting expectation that the housing lending space could see some macro prudential intervention. In its statement today, the RBA made direct reference to the importance of appropriate loan serviceability buffers in the current environment.
This follows the RBA’s release of housing debt ratios, which reveals housing debt to income ratios are at a record high for owner occupiers at 102%. RBA data also revealed that housing credit has grown 5.6% in the year to June 2021, while national accounts data showed a growth in incomes of only 1.6% over the same period. APRA data on quarterly property exposures for ADIs suggests that around 22% of new mortgage lending has a debt-to-income ratio of six or more. This may also become a focus for more prudent lending conditions. 
It is also worth noting that while monthly housing market appreciation has been strong at 1.5% in the month to September, this is actually the slowest monthly rate of increase since January this year. Affordability constraints already appear to be easing momentum in the market, with monthly growth rates of property values likely peaking in March 2021.

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