长期创纪录的低抵押贷款利率推动了房屋价值的增长，但是持续了多长时间？
Tim Lawless

2 Mar 2021

历史上较低的抵押贷款利率，加上可用的信贷，改善的经济状况和较低的广告供应水平，推动了住房活动和价值的强劲反弹。至少在今年和明年之前，抵押贷款利率可能会保持在历史最低水平，我们预计房价将面临进一步上涨的压力。尽管自去年10月以来资本增长迅速，但全国住房价格仅比其2017年的峰值高出2.8％，而负担能力最强的首都悉尼和墨尔本的房屋价格仍略低于历史高位。

尽管预计住房需求将保持强劲，但随着住房承受能力的限制变得越来越具有挑战性，取消财政支持以及逐步取消首次购房者激励措施，当前的快速升值速度可能会逐渐减弱。

如果决策者认为房地产市场可能会出现金融稳定风险，那么除了货币政策外，还有其他机制可以帮助将风险降至最低并抑制价格上涨。以前，当人们对投资者活动和仅利息贷款的担忧在市场上变得过多时，宏观审慎杠杆被证明是有效的。新一轮的信贷紧缩可能会在减少特定风险领域的信贷可用性方面产生相同的效果。



Prolonged record low mortgage rates fuel housing value growth, but for how long?
Tim Lawless

2 Mar 2021
Historically low mortgage rates, along with credit availability, improving economic conditions and low advertised supply levels, have fuelled a solid rebound in housing activity and values. With mortgage rates likely to remain at their record low setting, at least through this year and probably next year, we are expecting to see further upwards pressure on housing prices.  Despite the rapid pace of capital gains since October last year, national housing prices are only 2.8% higher than their previous peak in 2017 and the most unaffordable capitals, Sydney and Melbourne, are still recording dwelling values that are slightly below their record highs.

Although housing demand is expected to remain strong, it is likely the current rapid rate of appreciation will taper as housing affordability constraints become more challenging, fiscal support is removed and first home buyer incentives phase out.

If policy makers see financial stability risks emanating from the housing market, there are mechanisms other than monetary policy that would help to minimise risk and dampen price growth.  Macroprudential levers proved to be effective previously when concerns about investor activity and interest only lending became over-represented in the market.  A new round of credit tightening would probably have the same effect in reducing credit availability in specific areas of risk. 
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/prolonged-record-low-mortgage-rates-fuel-housing-value-growth-how-long