利率保持不变，但信贷条件趋紧
Tim Lawless

6 Apr 2021
由于现金利率可能会长期保持不变，因此人们将注意力更多地放在了澳联储货币政策设置的其他要素及其对经济的看法上，包括住房市场状况。

澳洲联储一直在坚定其现金率和三年期澳大利亚政府债券收益率目标（均设定为0.1％）的地位，定期融资机制继续确保向企业和家庭提供低成本信贷以及QE计划上个月又增加了1000亿澳元，这也支持了一种期望，即至少在短期到中期，融资成本将保持较低水平。可以说，随着经济从财政支持伞中崛起，未来几个月将是澳储行的关键评估期。

虽然我们可以看到由于JobKeeper结束而导致劳动力市场紧缩的暂时逆转，但持续的低利率和澳大利亚经济复苏的势头将支持2021年劳动力市场的进一步改善。不过，通货膨胀的强劲趋势可能仍需要数年的时间，这为稳定的现金利率前景提供了理由。

从房地产市场的角度来看，低抵押贷款利率，改善的经济状况以及信心十足的消费部门在过去六个月中看到房地产市场活动激增，从去年9月底至今年3月，推动住房价值上涨了8.2％。 CoreLogic发布的3月房屋价值指数显示出32年来最快的资本增值速度。

在先前的住房周期中，普遍减慢了住房市场的因素是利率上升，经济状况恶化或信贷条件趋紧。综观所有这些因素，我们预计短期内不会提高短期抵押贷款利率，而且经济有一定的积极势头，因此最可能减缓住房状况的因素是新一轮的信贷紧缩以及住房负担能力变得越来越困难，尤其是对于首次购房者。

尽管新一轮的宏观审慎政策正在越来越多地考虑何时，如果不是的话，这种政策干预的催化剂更有可能基于贷款标准质量下降或与抵押相关的家庭债务增加。紧缩的信贷状况可能会立即对房地产市场活动产生抑制作用，同时继续让创纪录的低利率支撑持续的经济复苏。
Google Translation.
在下才学浅薄，望多指教。
Oringinal Article:
Rates remain on hold but tighter credit conditions loom
Tim Lawless

6 Apr 2021

With the cash rate likely to remain on hold for an extended period of time, attention is more focussed on other elements of the RBA’s monetary policy settings and their perspective on the economy, including housing market conditions.

The RBA has been unwavering on their position for the cash rate and three year Australian government bond yield target (both set at 0.1%), the Term Funding Facility continues to ensure low cost credit is available for lending to businesses and households and the QE program, which was extended last month by a further $100 billion, is also supporting an expectation that funding costs will remain low, at least over the short-to-medium-term.   Arguably, the coming months will be a critical assessment period for the RBA, as the economy emerges from the umbrella of fiscal support.  

While we could see a temporary reversal in labour market tightening due to the end of JobKeeper, persistently low interest rates and momentum in Australia’s economic recovery should support further improvements in the labour market in 2021.  An unemployment rate low enough to create wages pressures and a stronger trend in inflation is still likely to be several years away though, providing the justification for the stable cash rate outlook.

From a housing market perspective, low mortgage rates, improving economic conditions and a confident consumer sector has seen housing market activity surge over the past six months, driving housing values 8.2% higher between the end of September last year and March this year.  The March Home Value Index release from CoreLogic was showing the fastest pace of  capital gains in 32 years.

Through previous housing cycles, the factors that generally slowed the housing market were either rising interest rates, worsening economic conditions or tighter credit conditions.  Looking at each of these factors, we aren’t expecting a lift in short term mortgage rates any time soon, and the economy has some positive momentum, so the most likely factor that will slow housing conditions is a new round of credit tightening along with housing affordability becoming more of a challenge, especially for first home buyers.

While a new round of macroprudential policies is looking increasingly a matter of when not if, the catalyst for such a policy intervention is more likely to be based on a worsening in the quality of lending standards or increase in mortgage related household debt, rather than as a response to heat in the housing market. Tighter credit conditions would probably have an immediate dampening effect on housing market activity, while continuing to let record low interest rates support the ongoing economic recovery.