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现金利率在2021年初保持不变

送交者: Lk1970[♂☆★破虏大将军★☆♂] 于 2021-02-08 18:53 已读 28946 次  

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现金利率在2021年澳大利亚央行第一次董事会会议上保持不变

低利率,强有力的机构反应以及快速改善的经济状况一直是支撑住房市场反弹的主要因素。到2022年,抵押贷款利率很可能仍将保持在历史低位,因此房屋价值有望继续上涨。

澳洲联储此前已经承认,在持续低利率的环境下,资产价格将上涨,并通过改善住房财富来创造更强大的家庭资产负债表。这可能有助于抵消经济其他领域的风险,包括私营部门消费和投资的减少。根据最近的数据流,这些假设看起来很有根据。

CoreLogic的1月份房屋价值指数显示,自去年9月以来上涨了3.2%,澳大利亚房屋价值创下了历史新高。零售额同比增长13.3%,消费者和企业信心都趋向远高于COVID之前的水平。

澳储行很可能会继续关注近期住房价格的上涨趋势,将更多精力放在针对通货膨胀,保持澳元竞争力以及确保信贷保持便宜和可利用性方面,尤其是商业贷款方面。

随着房价预计将继续上涨,人们的注意力将再次转向住房负担能力。重要的是,最难以承受的市场,悉尼和墨尔本,录得最温和的增长状况。同时,达尔文和珀斯,最可负担的省会城市,这些城市的住房价格上涨最快。

如果澳洲联储与金融监管委员会(CFR)的其他成员一起看到房地产市场带来的金融稳定风险,那么除了货币政策之外,还有其他机制可以降低风险。以前,当CFR担心投资者和仅利息贷款在市场中所占比例过高时,宏观审慎杠杆才有效。新一轮的信贷紧缩可能会在减少特定风险领域的信贷可用性方面产生相同的效果。

Oringal Article:


Cash rate unchanged at first RBA Board meeting of 2021

Tim Lawless


2 Feb 2021


Low interest rates, strong institutional responses and rapidly improving economic conditions have been central factors supporting the rebound in housing markets.  With mortgage rates likely to remain at record lows well into 2022, housing values are expected to keep rising.

The RBA has previously acknowledged asset prices would appreciate in an environment of persistently low interest rates and create stronger household balance sheets, via improved housing wealth. This could help to offset risks in other areas of the economy, including a decline in private sector consumption and investment.  Based on the recent flow of data, those assumptions are looking well founded.

CoreLogic’s January home value index showed Australian housing values reached new record highs after rising 3.2% since September last year. Retail sales rose 13.3% year-on-year, and both consumer and business confidence are trending well above pre-COVID levels. 


It is likely the RBA will continue to look through the recent upwards trend in housing values, focusing more on targeting inflation, keeping the Australian dollar competitive, and ensuring credit remains cheap and available, especially for business lending. 


With housing prices expected to keep rising, attention will once again turn towards housing affordability.  Importantly, the most unaffordable markets, Sydney and Melbourne, are recording the mildest growth conditions. Meanwhile, it is the most affordable capital cities of Darwin and Perth, where housing values are rising the most rapidly.


If the RBA, along with other members of the Council of Financial Regulators (CFR), see financial stability risks emanating from the housing market, there are mechanisms other than monetary policy that would help to curtail risk.  Macroprudential levers proved to be effective previously when the CFR became concerned about investor and interest-only lending becoming over-represented in the market.  A new round of credit tightening would probably have the same effect in reducing credit availability in specific areas of risk.  
Source from:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/cash-rate-unchanged-first-rba-board-meeting-2021

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