《经济学人》--洛杉矶大火将造成巨大损失
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The Los Angeles fires will be extraordinarily expensive

洛杉矶大火将造成巨大损失

They will also expose California’s faulty insurance market
它们还将暴露加州保险市场的缺陷

The fires that are burning through southern California may be shocking, but they are not surprising. Anyone who lived in the Hollywood Hills was aware of the danger. And for anyone who forgot, their annual insurance renewal provided a reminder at considerable expense. Such moments occasionally dampened沮丧 the mood in the City of Angels. Now the promised catastrophe灾难 has arrived.

肆虐南加州的大火可能令人震惊，但并不令人意外。任何住在好莱坞山的人都知道火灾的危险性。如果有人忘记了，每年的保险续保都会提醒他们，而且费用不菲。这样的时刻偶尔会让 “天使之城 ”的人们情绪低落。现在，说好的灾难已经来临。

On the morning of January 10th firefighters were continuing to battle the flames, which have so far displaced转移 180,000 people and led to ten deaths, as fierce凶猛的 winds threatened to spread the embers余火 farther still. Even at what could still be a relatively early stage, the wildfires are likely to be among the most expensive ever. Homes in the Pacific Palisades, a neighbourhood still ablaze着火, sell for around $4m. Many Hollywood actors have already lost their residences. Farther north, the Eaton Fire is menacing less affluent富裕的 suburbs. JPMorgan Chase, a bank, suggests that the economic damage could amount to more than $50bn, of which $20bn will be insured被保险人.

1 月 10 日上午，消防员仍在继续与大火搏斗，到目前为止，大火已造成 18 万人流离失所，10 人死亡，而狂风则有可能将余烬蔓延到更远的地方。即使是在相对早期的阶段，这场野火也可能是有史以来最昂贵的火灾之一。太平洋帕利塞德（Pacific Palisades）地区的房屋仍在燃烧，售价约为 400 万美元。许多好莱坞演员已经失去了住所。在更北的地方，伊顿大火正威胁着不太富裕的郊区。摩根大通银行（JPMorgan Chase）表示，经济损失可能超过 500 亿美元，其中 200 亿美元将获得保险。

The fires will expose failures in California’s creaking嘎吱声 insurance market. Companies have retreated撤退 from providing home insurance in the state. In 2022 Allstate, then California’s fourth-largest home and casualty意外事故 insurer, stopped selling policies. In March State Farm, another insurer, cancelled 30,000 home-insurance policies, including 1,600 in the Pacific Palisades. The firm highlighted the rising risk of losses from wildfires as a reason for pulling out of离开 the market.

大火将暴露出加利福尼亚州摇摇欲坠的保险市场的失灵。一些公司已经退出了加州的房屋保险业务。2022 年，当时加州第四大房屋和意外事故保险公司 Allstate 停止销售保单。3 月，另一家保险公司 State Farm 取消了 3 万份房屋保险保单，其中包括太平洋帕利塞德地区的 1600 份保单。该公司强调，野火造成损失的风险上升是退出市场的原因。

Expensive insurance is one thing; fleeing insurers is quite another. Their decision to leave can only be explained by measures that prevent the market from working properly适当地. Until recently, Californian companies had been forbidden被禁止的 from using model-based estimates of catastrophic risks, owing to a ballot measure that was passed in 1988 and sought to lower premiums保险费. Therefore, although climate change increased the likelihood of wildfires, insurers were unable to reflect反射 this in their bills. Many refused to bear承受 the risk.

高昂的保险费是一回事，保险公司的逃离则是另一回事。他们离开的决定只能用阻止市场正常运作的措施来解释。直到最近，由于 1988 年通过的一项旨在降低保费的投票措施，加利福尼亚州的公司一直被禁止使用基于模型的灾难性风险估算。因此，尽管气候变化增加了野火发生的可能性，保险公司却无法在账单中反映出来。许多保险公司拒绝承担风险。

As a consequence, lots of Californians have ended up reliant on theFAIR plan, a non-profit outfit that acts as an insurer of last resort and charges accordingly相应地. The plan is exposed to $3bn of potential claims in the Pacific Palisades, a number that grew by 85% from 2023 to 2024 as private insurers retreated from the market. Some millionaires will end up out of pocket: the plan covers up to only $3m of losses. Many others will be uninsured.

因此，许多加州人最终依赖于 FAIR 计划，这是一个非营利性机构，充当最后的保险人，并收取相应的费用。该计划在太平洋帕利塞德地区面临着 30 亿美元的潜在索赔，由于私人保险公司退出市场，这一数字从 2023 年到 2024 年增长了 85%。一些百万富翁最终将自掏腰包：该计划最多只能承担 300 万美元的损失。还有许多人将得不到保险。

Even Californians who have avoided the worst of the fire could lose out. If theFAIR plan is unable to meet the cost of claims from its own reserves储备, it will almost certainly recoup偿还 them from the private insurers still operating in the state. By chance, on January 2nd reforms to allow insurers to use model-based estimates of risk went into effect. The next wildfire season will not come as a surprise. At least, with better pricing of the risk, Los Angeles might be more prepared. 

即使是躲过了最严重火灾的加利福尼亚人也可能蒙受损失。如果 FAIR 计划无法用自己的储备金支付理赔费用，它几乎肯定会从仍在该州运营的私人保险公司那里收回成本。幸运的是，1 月 2 日，允许保险公司使用基于模型的风险估算的改革开始生效。下一个野火季节的到来将不会让人感到意外。至少，有了更好的风险定价，洛杉矶可能会做好更充分的准备。