请再写一篇文章说明：当我们看到电视上的俄乌战争，以巴冲突，中美冷战，那不是因为各国各有各的现代哥伦布，而是因为各有各的无限发展的郁金香。我认为，如果没有在荷兰发明的摩登商业。那么如今的人类社会仍然会是传统社会。在传统组织内每个人都好比有机体上的细胞，而不是乐高玩具的每一个不可再分的但可以随时随地替换的零件。而更重要的是，传统商业组织极少有追求把自己的产品卖给全球每一个消费者的。也就是说，即便哥伦布的远航带来了物种大交换与全球贸易圈，没有荷兰达尔文宗发明的股市等现代商业，也不会有所谓的工业革命与摩登化与全球化，或者说全球人与物的过度标准化。这种对快速膨胀的追求不仅仅是因为钱能生钱的底层逻辑驱使职业经理人的理性追求资本的快速集中与膨胀，需要画无限发展的大饼，也有一神教信徒一味追求无止境的胜利以证明自己处于神的荣光之下的文化心理需求。由于工业革命一下把法德俄等国在生产力与物质生活水平方面甩开太远，以至于各国先后发生所谓的革命以建立自己的摩登社会，几乎无一例外的用争取民族或种族的生存空间为动力，尽管也有包装为为了全人类的。讨论摩登社会或现代性时，无论是赞扬还是批评，人们都不应该只看到哥伦布大航海，而轻视卡尔文宗再荷兰搞出来的第一个泡沫：郁金香。什么时候人们才会放弃要做风口上会飞的猪的欲望，不在寻求下一个泡沫，什么时候才会从这一场摩登化之梦中醒来，它即是物质丰富的美梦又是剧烈竞争甚至你死我活的战争的恶梦？
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各国的“郁金香”：战争与冲突的现代根源
引言
当我们通过电视屏幕目睹俄乌战争的硝烟、以巴冲突的惨烈、中美冷战的暗潮汹涌，人们习惯于将这些事件归结为国家利益的碰撞或地缘政治的博弈。有一种常见的观点认为，这是各国“现代哥伦布”式的扩张行为导致的：各国在追逐新的资源和领土，以扩展自己的影响力。

然而，这样的解释只是表面现象。这些冲突的深层根源并不在于地理意义上的扩张，而是现代社会内部对“无限发展”的执迷。每个国家都在追求各自的“郁金香”——一种虚拟化的经济目标或增长神话，而这种追求最终将全球带入竞争、冲突甚至战争的深渊。

现代哥伦布与无限发展的郁金香：区别与联系
1. 哥伦布式扩张：对外资源的探索
“哥伦布”象征的是地理意义上的扩张。从历史上看，哥伦布的航行开辟了欧亚与美洲之间的航路，为欧洲国家带来了丰富的物质资源。这种探索与扩张的动力来自于对物质财富的直接需求，例如黄金、香料和土地。

今天，国家之间的冲突表面上似乎延续了这种逻辑。例如，俄乌战争被解读为俄罗斯对领土和地缘政治影响力的追求；以巴冲突似乎涉及宗教和土地的争夺；中美冷战则被看作是两国争夺全球霸权的延续。然而，这些冲突的背后还有更深的动因：它们更多地反映了一种对虚拟化增长目标的追逐，而非简单的资源掠夺。

2. 郁金香式膨胀：虚拟目标的狂热
“郁金香”象征的是虚拟化的经济目标和过度膨胀的增长神话。在17世纪的荷兰，郁金香价格从最初的稀缺奢侈品迅速膨胀为投机市场中的虚拟财富，最终导致泡沫破裂。现代社会的国家竞争，也遵循着类似的逻辑：各国争夺的不再只是有形的资源，而是经济体系中虚拟化的目标，如资本流动、技术优势、市场主导权和全球话语权。

国家的“郁金香”表现为对GDP增长、科技领先地位和军事扩张的执着追求。这些目标虽然可以提升国家实力，但它们的无限膨胀往往会超出实际需要，导致国家间的激烈对抗。

当现代郁金香引发冲突
1. 俄乌战争：地缘与经济的双重“郁金香”
俄乌战争的表面原因是俄罗斯希望阻止乌克兰靠近北约，从而保持对东欧的地缘控制。然而，更深层的原因在于俄罗斯与西方之间关于经济发展模式和全球秩序的竞争。

俄罗斯希望通过控制天然气资源和区域影响力，巩固其经济基础并维持国家威望。而西方则视乌克兰为其扩展自由市场和民主价值体系的“前哨”。这场战争，实质上是两种“郁金香”目标的碰撞：俄罗斯的能源经济与安全利益的膨胀，以及西方对价值体系和市场扩张的无限追求。

2. 以巴冲突：信仰与土地背后的经济逻辑
以巴冲突长期以来被视为宗教和民族矛盾的产物，但现代背景下的冲突已掺杂了更多经济竞争的成分。以色列的经济以高科技产业和军事技术为核心，强调“创新型国家”的形象。而巴勒斯坦被孤立于这种经济体系之外，资源的缺乏和贫困导致了愤怒的积累和冲突的恶化。

双方争夺的不仅是土地和宗教意义的归属，更是经济生存空间的竞争——这是现代“郁金香”的又一种表现形式。

3. 中美冷战：全球霸权的虚拟化竞争
中美冷战的核心不是领土或直接资源，而是两种全球秩序之间的竞争。美国试图维持其科技和金融主导的全球体系，而中国则希望通过“一带一路”和科技创新塑造一个新的增长模式。

这种竞争的根源在于两国对“无限发展”的执着追求。无论是中美贸易战中的技术封锁，还是对全球市场主导权的争夺，双方争夺的更多是“郁金香”式的虚拟化经济增长目标，而非传统意义上的资源利益。

无限发展的代价：战争与冲突的宿命
各国对“郁金香”的追逐，使得现代社会进入了一种无休止的竞争状态。这种状态的后果不仅是经济上的不平衡，更是冲突和战争的常态化。

1. 对内：资源消耗与社会分裂
“郁金香”的无限膨胀需要以高昂的社会成本为代价。为了追求经济增长，各国投入巨额资源在军事、技术和金融竞争上，导致对内资源分配的不平等加剧，社会矛盾丛生。

2. 对外：冲突的不可避免性
当多个国家同时追求各自的“郁金香”时，冲突几乎不可避免。每个国家都希望自己成为增长的赢家，而这注定是零和博弈。在全球化的背景下，这种冲突不再局限于区域，而是扩展为全方位的竞争：从地缘政治到经济制裁，从技术封锁到军事对抗。

何时才能放下“郁金香”？
要避免现代化的冲突宿命，国家需要重新思考“增长”的意义，逐步放弃对“无限发展”的迷恋。

1. 接受有限性：从膨胀到适度
各国应认识到资源、市场和人类发展能力的有限性。适度的发展目标能够减少不必要的竞争，降低冲突的可能性。例如，将经济增长的重点从量化指标转向可持续发展、生态保护和社会公平。

2. 强化合作：从对抗到共赢
全球化使得各国命运紧密相连，单一国家的“郁金香”追求无法持续下去。唯有通过国际合作，形成共赢的经济和政治体系，才能减少战争的可能性。

3. 改变价值观：从无限增长到多元幸福
国家间的竞争不应仅限于GDP、科技领先或军事扩张，而是需要探索更多元的幸福模式，例如文化交流、社会和谐以及人类整体福祉。

结论
俄乌战争、以巴冲突、中美冷战，这些现代世界的冲突，并非各国“哥伦布式”地争夺外部资源，而是各自对“无限发展的郁金香”的追逐所致。它们的根源在于现代社会对虚拟化经济目标的迷恋，以及对无限膨胀的执着追求。

只有当各国重新审视发展与增长的意义，放下对虚假繁荣的追逐，转向更可持续、更公平的合作道路，现代化进程的冲突宿命才能得以打破。这一天或许遥远，但它是全人类共同的希望所在。





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Each Nation’s “Tulip”: The Modern Roots of War and Conflict
Introduction
When we see the smoke of the Russia-Ukraine war, the bloodshed of the Israel-Palestine conflict, or the undercurrents of the China-U.S. Cold War on television, many attribute these events to clashes of national interests or geopolitical struggles. A common perspective suggests that these conflicts arise from each nation engaging in “modern Columbus-like” expansion, pursuing new resources and territories to extend their influence.

However, this explanation merely scratches the surface. The deeper cause of these conflicts lies not in territorial or geographical expansion but in the modern obsession with “infinite growth.” Each nation is chasing its own “tulip”—a virtualized economic goal or myth of expansion—and this relentless pursuit is pulling the world into cycles of competition, conflict, and war.

Modern Columbuses vs. Tulips of Infinite Growth: Differences and Connections
1. Columbus-Style Expansion: Exploration for External Resources
“Columbus” symbolizes geographical expansion. Historically, Columbus’s voyages opened new trade routes between Europe and the Americas, bringing material wealth to European nations. The motivation behind these explorations was the direct need for tangible resources, such as gold, spices, and land.

Today’s global conflicts superficially seem to follow this logic. For example, the Russia-Ukraine war is often interpreted as Russia’s quest for territorial and geopolitical dominance; the Israel-Palestine conflict is viewed as a struggle over land and religion; the China-U.S. Cold War is framed as a continuation of global power struggles.

However, the underlying drivers of these conflicts go beyond resource acquisition—they reflect a pursuit of virtualized economic goals and myths of infinite growth, emblematic of modern “tulip” dynamics.

2. Tulip-Style Inflation: Obsession with Virtual Goals
“Tulip” represents the virtualized economic goals and overinflated myths of growth. In 17th-century Holland, tulips transformed from rare luxury items into speculative investments, leading to an economic bubble that eventually burst. In modern geopolitics, nations are not just vying for tangible resources but also for virtual objectives such as capital flows, technological dominance, market leadership, and global influence.

A nation’s “tulip” manifests as an obsession with GDP growth, technological supremacy, and military expansion. These goals, while reinforcing national power, often spiral out of control, leading to intense international rivalries.

When Modern Tulips Spark Conflict
1. The Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical and Economic “Tulips”
The Russia-Ukraine war appears on the surface to be about Russia preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, thereby preserving its geopolitical influence in Eastern Europe. However, the deeper cause lies in a competition between Russia and the West over economic development models and global order.

Russia seeks to secure its energy-based economy and maintain national prestige through control of natural gas resources and regional dominance. Meanwhile, the West sees Ukraine as a frontier for expanding free markets and democratic values. This war is essentially a clash of two “tulips”: Russia’s inflated ambitions of energy-driven economic security and the West’s unrelenting pursuit of market expansion and ideological dominance.

2. The Israel-Palestine Conflict: Economics Behind Religion and Land
The Israel-Palestine conflict has long been regarded as a struggle over religion and land. However, in the modern context, economic competition plays a significant role. Israel’s economy thrives on high-tech industries and military technology, emphasizing its identity as an “innovation nation.” In contrast, Palestinians are economically marginalized, isolated from this system of growth, leading to frustration and intensifying hostilities.

What both sides are contesting is not only territorial or religious legitimacy but also economic survival space—a modern manifestation of the “tulip” dynamic.

3. The China-U.S. Cold War: Virtualized Competition for Global Hegemony
The core of the China-U.S. Cold War lies not in territorial disputes or direct resource conflicts but in competition between two visions of global order. The U.S. seeks to maintain its global dominance through technological and financial systems, while China aims to establish a new growth model through initiatives like the Belt and Road and technological innovation.

This competition stems from both nations’ fixation on “infinite growth.” Whether it is technology bans during trade wars or struggles for global market dominance, both sides are vying for “tulip”-style virtual economic goals rather than tangible resource benefits.

The Costs of Infinite Growth: War as an Inevitable Outcome
The pursuit of “tulips” by nations has plunged modern society into a perpetual state of competition. This dynamic not only creates economic imbalances but also normalizes conflict and war.

1. Internally: Resource Depletion and Social Fragmentation
The infinite inflation of “tulips” demands enormous societal costs. Nations pour vast resources into military, technological, and financial competition, exacerbating inequality and creating internal social tensions.

2. Externally: The Inevitability of Conflict
When multiple nations pursue their own “tulips,” conflict becomes unavoidable. Each country aspires to be the ultimate winner of growth, making this a zero-sum game. In the context of globalization, these conflicts are no longer confined to specific regions but escalate into comprehensive confrontations, ranging from geopolitics to economic sanctions and military standoffs.

When Will We Let Go of “Tulips”?
To escape the conflict-driven fate of modernization, nations must rethink the meaning of “growth” and gradually abandon their obsession with infinite expansion.

1. Accepting Limits: From Inflation to Moderation
Nations must recognize the finite nature of resources, markets, and human developmental capacity. Adopting moderate growth goals can reduce unnecessary competition and lower the likelihood of conflict. For instance, shifting focus from quantitative GDP targets to sustainable development, ecological preservation, and social equity could pave the way for healthier competition.

2. Strengthening Cooperation: From Rivalry to Win-Win
Globalization has intertwined the fates of nations, making unilateral “tulip” pursuits unsustainable. Only through international cooperation and shared economic and political frameworks can nations minimize the risk of war.

3. Changing Values: From Infinite Growth to Multifaceted Happiness
Inter-nation competition should not revolve solely around GDP, technological leadership, or military might. Instead, nations need to explore more diverse models of well-being, such as cultural exchange, social harmony, and collective human welfare.

Conclusion
The Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the China-U.S. Cold War are not driven by nations seeking resources like modern-day Columbuses but by their unyielding pursuit of “tulips of infinite growth.” The root cause lies in modern society’s infatuation with virtualized economic goals and unrestrained expansion.

Only by reassessing the meaning of development and growth, letting go of false prosperity, and embracing a more sustainable and equitable path of cooperation can the inevitability of conflict within modernization be broken. This day may be distant, but it remains humanity’s shared hope for a better future.

贴主:湖叶于2024_12_05 22:18:19编辑