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联储换主席的概率有多大?(英文)

送交者: 雨地[♀★★*空谷幽兰*★★♀] 于 2021-08-31 12:13 已读 1974 次  

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President Joe Biden’s prime of who volition pb the Federal Reserve whitethorn travel down to a statement astir regulating Wall Street.


Jerome Powell is viewed arsenic the favourite to get the motion for different word starring the cardinal bank, but progressive Democrats similar Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez person lambasted the Republican seat for easing regulations connected large banks. And immoderate person praised Fed Governor Lael Brainard -- wide seen arsenic the starring rival to Powell for the apical spot -- for opposing those efforts.


That means Powell and Brainard’s attack to regularisation is poised to beryllium astatine the halfway of statement astir the bank’s aboriginal up of the expiration of the former’s word arsenic seat successful February. Biden’s advisers are considering recommending Powell for seat and Brainard arsenic vice seat of supervision, the agency’s apical regulatory role, radical acquainted with the substance told Bloomberg past week. 


Biden himself was said to person not yet weighed successful connected Fed unit matters, truthful the result remains acold from definite up of an expected determination this fall. Any information volition beryllium taxable to Senate confirmation, wherever Democrats person a slim majority. 


These are immoderate of the cardinal differences betwixt Powell and Brainard connected fiscal regulation:


Collaboration


While the seat has the past connection successful which rules get Fed consideration, Powell has often deferred to the apical regulator -- presently Vice Chairman Randal Quarles whose word ends aboriginal this year. When serving astatine the Fed from 2012 to 2018 earlier taking implicit arsenic chair, Powell went on with the banking oversight efforts of chap Governor Daniel Tarullo, who was appointed by President Barack Obama and who led the agency’s supervision of the manufacture earlier Quarles arrived.


But aft being named seat by President Donald Trump, Powell backed the efforts of Quarles -- a chap seasoned of backstage equity elephantine Carlyle Group Inc. -- to soil down the edges of post-crisis banking rules, sometimes reversing aspects of Tarullo’s work. 


Together, Powell and Quarles made changes that weren’t flashy but were significant, and they pushed Brainard into the relation of a predominant foil.


Brainard often came retired against regularisation changes she argued accrued risks to the banking system, logging astir 2 twelve absorption votes during Powell’s chairmanship. 


Living wills, accent tests


The bulk of Powell’s regulatory moves benefited determination and assemblage banks, which were released from the astir stringent rules enactment successful spot aft the 2008 fiscal collapse. But Wall Street besides made out. 


The Fed freed the large banks from a request that they clasp arsenic overmuch arsenic $40 cardinal successful borderline for swaps transactions betwixt a bank’s ain affiliates. The cardinal slope besides spearheaded an overhaul of the Dodd-Frank Act’s Volcker Rule, allowing lenders to boost investments successful task superior funds.


The Powell-Quarles squad besides lightened Wall Street’s burdens from 2 cardinal post-crisis efforts: 


Living wills: The Fed simplified and reduced the frequence of these monolithic documents written by the banks arsenic credible roadmaps for rapidly and safely taking them isolated if they fail.Stress tests: And it overhauled the yearly checks for large banks, which whitethorn beryllium the astir important determination during Powell’s tenure.

Brainard argued that changes to the accent tests represented “a greenish airy for ample banks to trim their superior buffers," and said the living-wills overhaul could weaken the plans from the biggest lenders and “leave the strategy little safe." 


Her misgivings person been echoed by cardinal Democratic senators connected the Banking Committee that volition initially vet Biden’s picks -- sheet Chairman Sherrod Brown and Warren.


Powell argues that the changes connected his ticker were mostly capital-neutral, astir leaving the biggest banks with akin superior requirements than they had earlier -- oregon adjacent higher successful immoderate cases. 


“We did not weaken superior requirements for the largest banks," Powell said astatine a caller proceeding with lawmakers. “I actively resisted immoderate determination successful that direction. And successful fact, the accent superior buffer, which we implemented rather precocious aft years of consideration, raises superior standards."


For the adjacent tier of large-but-not-gigantic banks, however, Powell oversaw the weakening of post-crisis rules connected respective cardinal areas of Fed supervision, including the liquidity cushions lenders specified arsenic US Bancorp and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. request to support connected manus if backing dries up successful a crisis. Brainard opposed overmuch of that work. 


She besides called for caution successful letting those determination banks merge and swell successful size, specified arsenic successful PNC’s acquisition this twelvemonth of the U.S. operations of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., voicing interest astir attraction among specified banks “where common-sense safeguards person been weakened."


Digital currency


Brainard’s been outspoken astir the request for the cardinal slope to accelerate its determination connected adopting a integer currency, countering Powell’s much diligent stance.


In caller remarks to the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, she exhibited that greater willingness, calling it an urgent contented and saying that letting different jurisdictions specified arsenic China get up connected integer currencies “doesn’t dependable similar a sustainable aboriginal to me."


Powell has downplayed that risk, arguing that the U.S. isn’t astir to suffer its reserve-currency dominance to China’s integer move. 


Brainard has besides shepherded the Fed’s effort toward a real-time payments strategy against pushback from Wall Street banks that had already created a akin network. Quarles opposed the plan, though Powell divided from him and backed it. 


Buybacks, buffer


In the vigor of the Covid-19 crisis, Powell supported a partial bounds connected banks’ dividends and banal buybacks, which was highly unpopular connected Wall Street. But Brainard favored much assertive measures to halt superior give-backs, arsenic did Senate Democrats who called for full bans connected returning wealth to shareholders.


Another wide rift betwixt Brainard and Powell developed implicit the usage of a peculiar superior cushion for megabanks known arsenic the countercyclical superior buffer. 


The thought of this post-crisis instrumentality is that the Fed -- arsenic successful different jurisdictions astir the satellite -- tin crook up the superior dial for banks erstwhile the system is booming and indebtedness portfolios swelling. When a caller situation rears up, the Fed tin outpouring a trap doorway that dumps that excess superior backmost into the lenders’ operations to trim extracurricular strains connected the industry.


For the years starring up to the pandemic’s economical damage, Brainard advocated the cardinal slope see flipping the power to crook the buffer on. Hers was the lone ballot for activating it successful March of 2019. 


As the U.S. system digs retired of the Covid-19 hole, the buffer -- and its billions successful accrued superior requirements -- volition astir surely instrumentality arsenic a absorption of statement astatine the committee and strenuous absorption from Wall Street lobbyists.


Climate change 


Seven antithetic climate-activist groups, including the Sierra Club, came retired successful May against a Powell re-nomination, arguing that the Fed nether his enactment has failed to usage its regulatory tools to discourage banks from lending wealth to fossil substance companies. They did not endorse Brainard oregon anyone other for the job.


The Powell Fed has established caller committees for addressing the threats that clime alteration poses to the fiscal system. Its increasing absorption connected the situation has drawn disapproval from Republicans successful Congress, who’ve warned it against taking immoderate enactment to stifle the travel of funds to carbon-producing companies.

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