建筑需求推动澳大利亚住房建设成本季度增长 1.4%
CoreLogic

18 Aug 2021
CoreLogic 的全国住宅建筑成本指标显示，截至 2021 年 6 月的三个月内增长了 1.4%，超过了同期 0.8% 的消费者价格指数。

最新的 Cordell 住房指数价格 (CHIP) 结果显示，年增长率为 3.9%，是自 2014 年第三季度以来最大的季度变化，当时住宅建筑成本增加了 1.5%。

住宅建筑行业的广泛需求以及木材、PVC 管道和配件等材料的短缺导致成本上涨，而且短期内没有放缓的迹象。

继 5 月份下降 -7.6% 之后，澳大利亚 6 月份的月度住宅批准量经季节性调整后下降了 -6.7%。根据澳大利亚统计局 (ABS) 经季节性调整的住宅审批数据，在 2 月和 3 月连续激增 19.1% 和 16.0% 之后，审批管道在 3 月达到顶峰。

经季节性调整后，2020-21 财政年度的住宅批准总数比 2019-20 财政年度高 27.3%。这是由私营部门房屋批准推动的，2020-21 年比 2019-20 年高 42.8%。

占澳大利亚总劳动力约 8.8% 的建筑业的就业水平在截至 2 月的三个月内下降了 -1.6% 后，在截至 2021 年 5 月的三个月内增长了 0.3%。

CoreLogic 的研究主管 Tim Lawless 说：“随着过去 12 个月住宅批准的激增，澳大利亚的住宅建筑行业正在经历一段早期阶段，这将是一段较长的建筑活动。”

“大量的住宅建筑工程可能会在很长一段时间内使建筑材料和贸易供不应求。我认为，随着供应链努力应对持续的短缺，我们可以预期未来一年的住房建设成本将大幅上涨。更高的建筑成本将不可避免地转化为更高的新房和装修成本。”
CoreLogic 的全国房屋价值指数显示，7 月份澳大利亚房屋价值增长 1.
6%，年增长率达到 16.1%。

这是自 2004 年 2 月以来最快的年增长率，尽管自 3 月份以来月增长率呈
下降趋势，当时全国指数增长了 2.8%。

新南威尔士州 CHIP 指数在截至 2021 年 6 月的三个月内上涨了 1.3%，使该州的年增长率达到 3.4%。这是自 2018 年最后一个季度以来，季度变化首次超过 1.0%。
维多利亚季度住宅建筑成本增长1.4%，年增长率为3.9%，与全国增长率一致。
昆士兰州的 CHIP 指数在本季度上涨 1.4%，年增长率达到 4.7%，是澳大利亚最高的增长率。
西澳大利亚州的 CHIP 指数本季度增长 1.4%，是自 2015 年 12 月以来建筑成本增长最快的速度。西澳的建筑成本每年增长 3.7%。
南澳大利亚的季度 CHIP 指数上涨 1.5%，全年上涨 3.6%，涨幅为 2014 年 9 月以来最快。
Building demand drives 1.4% quarterly increase in Australia’s housing construction costs
CoreLogic

18 Aug 2021

CoreLogic’s national measure of residential construction costs show an increase of 1.4% in the three months to June 2021, outpacing the Consumer Price Index of 0.8% for the same period.

The latest Cordell Housing Index Price (CHIP) results show an annual growth rate of 3.9% and the largest quarterly change since the third quarter of 2014, when residential construction costs increased 1.5%.

Wide spread demand across the residential construction sector and a shortage of materials such as timber, PVC piping and fittings have contributed to the rise in costs with no sign of easing in the short-term.

Australia’s monthly dwelling approvals fell -6.7% in June in seasonally adjusted terms following a -7.6% decrease in May. The pipeline of approvals peaked in March after recording consecutive surges of 19.1% in February and 16.0% in March according to seasonally adjusted dwelling approval figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Total dwelling approvals in the 2020-21 financial year were 27.3% higher than in the 2019-20 financial year, in seasonally adjusted terms. This was driven by private sector house approvals, which were 42.8% higher in 2020-21 than 2019-20.

Employment levels in the construction industry, which accounts for around 8.8% of Australia’s total workforce, increased 0.3% in the three months to May 2021, after a fall of -1.6% in the three months to February.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s Research Director, said “With the surge in dwelling approvals over the past 12 months, Australia’s residential construction sector is working through the early stages of what is set to be an extended period of heightened construction activity.”

“The substantial pipeline of residential construction work is likely to keep both building materials and trades in short supply for an extended period of time.  I think we can expect housing construction costs to rise more significantly over the coming year as supply chains grapple with ongoing shortages. Higher construction costs will inevitably flow through to higher costs for new homes and renovations.”

Quarterly change in construction costs v CPI, National

CoreLogic’s national home value index saw Australian home values increase by 1.6% in July, taking the annual growth to 16.1%.

It’s the fastest annual rate of growth since February 2004, despite the monthly growth rate trending lower since March, when the national index increased 2.8%. 

Key findings – Q2 2021 CHIP Report

The New South Wales CHIP index increased 1.3% in the three months to June 2021, bringing the state’s annual growth rate to 3.4%. It’s the first time the quarterly change has been more than 1.0% since the final quarter of 2018.In Victoria quarterly residential construction costs increased 1.4%, taking the annual increase to 3.9%, in line with the national growth rate. Queensland’s CHIP index increased 1.4% in the quarter, taking its annual increase to 4.7%, the highest rate of growth in Australia. The CHIP index for Western Australia increased 1.4% for the quarter, the fastest pace of growth in construction costs since December 2015. Annually construction costs for WA have increased 3.7%. South Australia’s quarterly CHIP index rose 1.5%, up 3.6% for the year and rising at the fastest rate since September 2014.