大流行封锁下的房地产市场
Eliza Owen

9 Jul 2021


随着 COVID-19 的 delta 变种在澳大利亚蔓延，疫苗接种率仍然很低，CoreLogic 发布了一份关于通过封锁措施的住房市场表现的全面概述。

该报告揭示了处于封锁状态的房地产市场的一些关键因素，以帮助了解未来几周的预期，包括：

悉尼和墨尔本的拍卖结果在锁定期间保持弹性，尽管在拍卖活动之前通常会撤回、推迟或出售比正常数量更多的拍卖。
交易活动在锁定期间显着放缓，但随着限制的放松，购房“赶上”已经很明显。
通过封锁，房地产价值保持弹性，并随着社会疏远限制的放松而出现强劲增长。
住房市场价值的稳定可能取决于政府对该行业的广泛刺激和制度支持；一个不太确定的因素。
 

最近，在过去一周半的封锁中，悉尼的房地产市场相对有弹性。在截至 7 月 4 日的两周内，悉尼有 74.6% 的预定拍卖取得了成功。这略低于截至 6 月 20 日的前一周，当时 76.8% 的拍卖取得成功，低于前五年平均水平，即 77.2% 的拍卖结果成功。

到 2020 年，澳大利亚住房市场价值的峰谷跌幅仅为 -2.1%，然后在 2021 年前六个月飙升 12.2%。

CoreLogic 澳大利亚研究主管 Eliza Owen 指出，这是由于 COVID 引起的封锁的独特动态。

“确实，在封锁期间需求会受到打击，”她说。 “去年全国范围内的第二阶段限制存在很多不确定性，对房地产市场结果的情绪暴跌。但供应量也下降了，因为卖家和代理商知道现在可能不是销售房产的最佳时机。这有助于平衡对价格的整体影响。”

然而，欧文女士还指出，尽管房地产市场并未因 COVID-19 而崩溃，但政府和机构的反应在市场稳定中发挥了关键作用。

“房地产市场没有看到进一步贬值的很大一部分原因是为家庭提供的巨额收入支持计划、JobKeeper 在维持就业关系方面的作用、低抵押贷款利率和抵押贷款还款延期。

欧文女士说：“如果再次延长封锁期，如果没有同样的政府和机构支持，住房需求和供应的未来将变得不确定。”
这项全面的研究回顾了澳大利亚住宅部门在各种国家、州和城市封锁期间的表现。它着眼于悉尼和墨尔本的拍卖弹性，不同的封锁期限如何影响房地产价值，以及政府刺激措施和机构支持如何在市场稳定中发挥重要作用。对于房地产行业的任何人来说，这都是必不可少的读物。
The housing market through pandemic lockdowns
Eliza Owen

9 Jul 2021
As the delta variant of COVID-19 spreads in Australia, and vaccination rates remain low, CoreLogic has released a comprehensive overview of housing market performance through lockdowns. 
The report uncovers some key elements of housing markets in lockdown to help inform expectations for the coming weeks, including:

   Auction results across Sydney and Melbourne have remained resilient in lockdown, particularly circuit-breaker lockdowns, although a larger than normal number of auctions are typically withdrawn, postponed or sold prior to the auction event. 

Transaction activity slows markedly through lockdown periods, however a ‘catch up’ in home purchases has been evident as restrictions ease. Property values have remained resilient through lockdowns, and have seen strong growth as social distancing restrictions eased. Stability of housing market values is likely subject to extensive government stimulus and institutional support for the sector; a factor which is far less certain going forward. 
More recently, the Sydney housing market has been relatively resilient amid the past week-and-a-half of lockdowns. For the two weeks ending 4th of July, Sydney has seen 74.6% of scheduled auctions achieve a successful result. This was slightly lower than the previous week ending 20th of June, when 76.8% of auctions saw a successful result, and below the previous five-year average, where 77.2% of results have been successful. 
Australian housing market values had a peak to trough decline of just -2.1% through 2020, before surging 12.2% through the first six months of 2021. 

CoreLogic Head of Research for Australia, Eliza Owen, noted this was due to the unique dynamics of a COVID-induced lockdown. 

“It is true that demand takes a hit during lockdowns” she said. “There was a lot of uncertainty amid stage two restrictions nationally last year, and sentiment for housing market outcomes plummeted. But supply also declined, because sellers and agents knew it may not be the best time to market property. That helped to balance out the overall effect on prices.”

However, Ms Owen also notes that although the housing market did not crash because of COVID-19, government and institutional responses played a key role in market stability.

“A big part of why the housing market didn’t see further value declines was the enormous income support packages provided to households, the role of JobKeeper in maintaining employment relationships, low mortgage rates and mortgage repayment deferrals. 

“In the event of another extended lockdown, the future of housing demand and supply becomes much less certain if that same government and institutional support is not there,” Ms Owen said.