CoreLogic今天发布的2020年9月季度“痛苦与收益”报告显示，霍巴特继续以96.6％的利润转售率继续保持其首都城市的地位，而维多利亚州以97.5％的利润率是全州其他地区最赚钱的地区截至9月份的三个月中，有30万套房屋获利。
在全国范围内，获利转售的比例为88.1％或248亿澳元，高于2020年6月季度的87.2％或198亿澳元。然而，亏损额也因非赢利性销售而加深，从第二季度的-8.85亿澳元增至9月的-12亿澳元。
CoreLogic澳大利亚研究部主管Eliza Owen表示，对9月份季度的“痛苦与收益”分析反映了整个2020年房地产市场的韧性。
“除墨尔本外，每个更大的首都城市市场在9月份季度的获利销售率都有所增长。自2018年3月以来，霍巴特的获利销售率最高。
“沿海区域市场也对卖家特别有利，其获利的销售额占六个主要沿海市场（吉朗，伊拉瓦拉，中北海岸，纽卡斯尔麦格理湖地区，里士满特威德地区和阳光海岸）转售的95％以上。欧文女士说：“阳光海岸在9月份季度创下了创纪录的高利润率，达到96.4％”。
与澳大利亚各省会城市相比，该地区的获利销售份额增长速度超过了省会。
“澳大利亚地区市场的整体销售利润率在九月份季度增长了150个基点，达到89.2％，而首府城市市场的利润率增长了30个基点，达到87.2％。这也反映了到2020年区域和首都城市房地产市场之间的表现差异。”
独立房屋与单元房
该报告还表明，房屋的回报率（225 000美元）通常比单元房回报率（125 000美元）高。
“到2020年9月季度，整个澳大利亚独立房屋和单元房的利润均上升。独立房屋销售中亏损房屋的比例从截至6月的三个月的10.2％下降至9.6％，而亏损单元房的销售比例从21.4％下降至19.6％。
独立房屋和单元房盈利能力之间的差异在9月季度缩小至10个百分点，低于截至6月三个月的11.2个百分点。缩小的差异是单元房获利能力比独立房屋增速更快的结果。即使亏损率使单元房部门的销售额下降得更快，但仍然比9月季度的独立房屋出售亏损的可能性高2倍。
投资者与业主
与自住业主相比，9月季度有较高比例的房地产投资者亏本出售房屋。投资者在9月份季度的销售中，有17.1％的物业亏损出售，而业主出售的物业为10.4％。
欧文女士说：“尽管本季度投资者销售中的亏损率较高，但以亏损形式转售的房地产率却比6月份季度的18.0％有所下降，而自住业主的销售亏损率却有所下降从11.1％。
“在霍巴特，唯一的自住业主中亏损销售发生率较高的地区。在过去的几个季度中，这一直是一致的趋势。在截至9月的三个月中，有3.2％的所有者占用的转售出现名义损失，而仅占投资者销售的1％。
“两个群体中的亏损销售水平相对较低，这反映了霍巴特市场的非凡资本增长。 CoreLogic房屋价值指数显示，霍巴特的住宅价格在截至2020年12月的5年中年均增长率为7.9％，是首都城市市场的年均增长率最高。”欧文女士说。
保持期
按持有期限分析收益表明，更多的收益来自市场上更多的时间。
“在2020年9月这一季度，澳大利亚整个转售活动的中位持有期约为8.5年。对于获利销售，中位数持有期为9年，而亏损销售通常持有6.7年。对于房屋和单位，在转售利润时，典型的持有期较长。”欧文女士说。
展望未来，欧文女士表示，预计澳大利亚的房地产市场将在未来几个月内进一步改善。 “由于创纪录的低抵押贷款利率，快于预期的经济复苏以及相对较低的COVID-19案例，获利能力将在未来几个季度呈上升趋势。”
本版《收益与收益报告》分析了2020年9月季度大约72,000处住宅物业的转售事件。欲了解更多信息或购买报告，请访问www.corelogic.com.au/
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原文：

Hobart and regional Victoria profit most, shows latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report
CoreLogic

18 Jan 2021

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for the September 2020 quarter released today has revealed Hobart retained its position as the capital city with the highest rate of profit making resales at 96.6%, while regional Victoria was the most profitable ‘rest of state’ region with 97.5% of dwellings sold for a profit in the three months to September.

Nationally, the proportion of resales that made a profit was 88.1% or $24.8 billion in profits, up from 87.2% or $19.8 billion in the June 2020 quarter. However, the amount of losses also deepened on non-profitable sales, from -$885 million in the June quarter to -$1.2 billion in September.

Eliza Owen, CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia, says the Pain and Gain analysis for the September quarter reflects the resilience seen in the property market throughout 2020.

“Each of the greater capital city markets, with the exception of Melbourne, saw an increase in the rate of profit making sales over the September quarter. The highest rate of profit making sales was across Hobart, which has been the case since March 2018.

“Coastal regional markets were also particularly profitable for sellers, with profit making sales representing over 95% of resales across six major coastal markets: Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast. The Sunshine Coast hit a record high rate of profit making sales in the September quarter at 96.4%”, says Ms Owen.

Comparing the capital cities to regional Australia, the portion of profit-making sales increased more rapidly across the regions than capitals.

“The combined regional Australian market saw the rate of profit making sales increase 150 basis points, to 89.2% in the September quarter, while the rate of profitability across capital city markets expanded 30 basis points, to 87.2%. This also reflects the divergent performance between regional and capital city real estate markets through 2020.”

Houses vs Units

The report also demonstrates that there was generally a higher rate of return for houses ($225,000) than units ($125,000).

“Profitability across both houses and units rose across Australia in the September 2020 quarter. The portion of properties sold at a loss among houses fell from 10.2% in the three months to June to 9.6%, while the portion of loss making unit sales fell from 21.4% to 19.6%.

The differential between house and unit profitability narrowed to 10 percentage points in the September quarter, down from 11.2 percentage points in the three months to June. The narrowed differential was a result of unit profitability rising faster than that of houses. Even though the rate of loss making sales declined faster across the unit segment, units were still about 2 times more likely to sell for a loss than houses in the September quarter.

Investors vs Owner Occupiers

A higher portion of property investors sold their dwelling at a loss during the September quarter compared with owner occupiers. Investor sales in the September quarter saw 17.1% of properties sell for a loss, compared with 10.4% of owner occupied sales.

Ms Owen says “Despite the higher rate of loss observed in investor sales in the quarter, the rate of properties re-sold at a loss was down from 18.0% in the June quarter, while the rate of loss making sales among owner occupiers was down from 11.1%.

“The only region where there was a higher incidence of loss making sales among owner occupiers was across Hobart. This has been a consistent trend across the past few quarters. In the three months to September, 3.2% of owner occupied resales saw a nominal loss, compared with just 1% of investor sales.

“The relatively low level of loss making sales among both cohorts reflects the exceptional capital growth across the Hobart market. CoreLogic home value indices show dwelling values across Hobart have seen annualised growth of 7.9% for the 5 years to December 2020, the highest annualised growth rate of the capital city markets,” says Ms Owen.

Hold periods

Analysing returns by hold period suggests a greater amount of gain comes from more time in the market.

“Over the September 2020 quarter, the median hold period of re-sale events across Australia was approximately 8.5 years. For profit making sales, the median hold period was 9 years, while loss making sales were typically held for 6.7 years. For houses and units, typical hold periods were longer across profit making resales,” says Ms Owen.

Looking ahead, Ms Owen says the Australian housing market is expected to improve further in the coming months. “With record low mortgage rates, a faster than expected economic recovery and relatively low cases of COVID-19, profitability is tipped to trend upwards over the coming quarters.”

This edition of the Pain and Gain report analyses approximately 72,000 residential property re-sale events over the September 2020 quarter. For more information or to buy the report, visit www.corelogic.com.au/reports/pain-and-gain.