随着春季销售季节正式开始，新房源上市

Tim Lawless
23 Sep 2021
随着春季销售季节开始升温，新上市的房屋库存开始上涨。

最近几周，澳大利亚每个首府城市的新房地产挂牌数量都有所增加，其中一些首府城市的挂牌数量增幅最大。尽管如此，除阿德莱德、珀斯和达尔文外，每个首都的新上市趋势仍低于五年平均水平。

在全国范围内，截至 9 月 5 日的四个星期内，新挂牌量触底反弹，市场上仅新增 31,731 套新挂牌量，这是自今年 1 月季节性低点以来的最低水平。虽然此后新挂牌量增加了 9.8%，但目前新挂牌量比 3 月份的近期高点低 -21.6%，比每年这个时候的五年平均水平低 -3.9%。
墨尔本的新挂牌数量增幅最大，其连续 4 周的滚动数量在 9 月的第一周创下近期低点，当时市场上只有 3,230 套新挂牌。从那时起，新上市的趋势飙升了 48.5%。最近放宽的房产检查限制将增加新房源的数量，但在 9 月 17 日宣布之前已经有上升趋势。数据显示，墨尔本的新房源趋势非常不稳定，在迄今为止的五次封锁中都急剧下降，然后在限制解除后迅速反弹。

悉尼没有表现出与墨尔本相同的波动性；部分原因是封锁次数减少，还因为限制并未禁止私人一对一检查。因此，自 8 月中旬以来，连续 4 周的新上市数量稳步上升。根据截至 9 月 19 日的新房源数量，新发布的房源数量增长了 31%，但仍比一年中这个时候的五年平均水平低 -3.9%。

在堪培拉，那里的居民也经历了长时间的封锁，自上周触及低点以来​​，新房源的趋势已经增加了 28%。直到 9 月 17 日星期五午夜，堪培拉都禁止进行实物财产检查。随着这些规则的放宽，新的上市趋势很可能会大幅上升。

处于另一端的是大多数避免封锁的城市。在珀斯，新上市趋势比五年平均水平高 7.9%，与去年同期相比增长 18.3%。达尔文的挂牌量迅速上升，比五年平均水平高 45.9%，而阿德莱德的新挂牌量比平均水平高 1.0%。

布里斯班的新房源趋势受到封锁后的影响，拖累了连续 4 周的房源数量下降。虽然后遗症似乎正在解除，但向上的转变是温和的，新上市的数量仍然比五年平均水平低 -3.8%。

整个 2021 年，霍巴特的新房源趋势一直低于平均水平，这可能是导致房价快速升值的关键因素——过去 12 个月上涨了 24.5%，是所有首府城市中最高的年增长率.新上市趋势正在上升，但在截至 9 月 19 日的四个星期内仍比五年平均水平低 -9.6%。
对于房地产专业人士和潜在买家来说，新上市的增加将是一种受欢迎的缓解。然而，活跃挂牌总数仍低于全国五年平均水平 -29%；软新上市流动的症状，以及由于高于平均水平的购买活动而导致的快速吸收。更多的房源意味着买家会有更多的选择，理论上这应该有助于缓解市场的一些紧迫性。

随着疫苗接种目标的实现，锁定限制计划进一步放宽，我们应该会看到考虑出售其财产的供应商的信心增加。目前，销售条件仍然倾向于供应商而不是买家，但春季和夏季上市的增加应该有助于重新平衡谈判桌上的买家和卖家位置。在承受能力挑战不断恶化的情况下，多少将取决于库存水平以及买家需求的深度。
Lift off for new listings, as Australia's spring selling season begins in earnest
Tim Lawless
23 Sep 2021
Freshly listed housing stock is starting to lift as the spring selling season begins to heat up. 
Every Australian capital city has seen a lift in the number of new real estate listings over recent weeks, with some of the largest listing increases recorded in those capitals navigating lockdown. Despite this, the new listings trends remain below the five-year average in every capital apart from Adelaide, Perth and Darwin. 
Nationally, new listings bottomed out over the four weeks ending September 5th with just 31,731 new listings added to the market, the lowest volume since the seasonal low in January this year. While new listings have since lifted by 9.8%, the number of new listings is currently -21.6% lower than the recent high in March and -3.9% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The largest lift in new listing numbers has been in Melbourne, where the rolling four-week count reached a recent low in the first week of September when only 3,230 new listings were added to the market.  Since then, the trend in new listings has surged 48.5%.  Recently eased restrictions on property inspections will have added to the lift in new listings, however there was already upwards movement prior to the announcement on September 17th.  Figures show Melbourne’s new listings trends have been extremely volatile, falling sharply through each of the five lockdowns to-date, before rebounding quickly once restrictions were lifted.
Sydney hasn’t shown the same volatility as Melbourne; partly due to fewer lockdowns, but also because restrictions did not prohibit private one-on-one inspections.  As a result, the rolling four-week count of new listings has steadily risen since mid-August.  Based on the count of new listings as at September 19th, freshly advertised listings are up 31%, but remain -3.9% below the five-year average for this time of the year.
In Canberra, where residents are also navigating an extended period of lockdown, the new listings trend has increased by 28% since finding a low last week.  Up until midnight on Friday September 17th physical property inspections were prohibited in Canberra.  With these rules now eased, it’s likely the new listings trend will ramp up more substantially. 
At the opposite end of the spectrum are the cities that have mostly avoided lockdowns. In Perth, the new listings trend is tracking 7.9% above the five-year average and up 18.3% compared with the same period last year.  Darwin listings are rapidly trending higher, 45.9% above the five-year average, while Adelaide’s new listings trend is 1.0% above average.
Brisbane’s new listings trend was suffering from a lockdown hangover, which had dragged the rolling four-week count of listings lower. While the hangover appears to be lifting, the upwards shift is mild and the count of new listings remains -3.8% below the five-year average.
The new listings trend in Hobart has held consistently below average levels throughout 2021, which is likely a key contributing factor to the rapid rate of appreciation in housing values - up 24.5% over the past 12 months and the highest annual growth rate of any capital city. The new listings trend is ramping up, but remained -9.6% below the five-year average over the four weeks ending September 19th.
An increase in fresh listings will be a welcome relief for real estate professionals and prospective buyers. However, total active listings remain -29% below the five year average nationally; a symptom of the soft new listings flow, and the rapid rate of absorption due to above average levels of buying activity.  More listings imply buyers will have more choice, which theoretically should help alleviate some of the urgency in the market.  
With lockdown restrictions planned to ease further as vaccination targets are met, we should see an increase in confidence from vendors thinking of selling their property.  At the moment, selling conditions remain skewed towards vendors rather than buyers, but a lift in listings through spring and summer should help to rebalance buyers and sellers places at the negotiating table. By how much will depend on stock levels as well as the depth of buyer demand amid worsening affordability challenges.
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