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住房越来越难以负担

送交者: Lk1970[♂☆★破虏大将军★☆♂] 于 2021-08-10 20:39 已读 28883 次  

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随着住房变得越来越难以负担,增长周期逐渐减少

Tim Lawless


2 Aug 2021

根据 CoreLogic 的全国房屋价值指数,7 月份澳大利亚房屋价值进一步上涨 1.6%。最新的上涨使今年前七个月的房价上涨了 14.1%,在过去的十二个月中上涨了 16.1%。


CoreLogic 的研究主管 Tim Lawless 将市场描述为强劲,但正在失去动力。 “过去一年全国房价上涨 16.1% 是自 2004 年 2 月以来最快的年度增长速度,但自今年 3 月全国指数上涨 2.8% 以来,月增长率一直呈下降趋势。”


劳利斯先生将房价增长率较低归因于几个因素。 “由于住宅价值在一个月内的增长超过了收入在一年内的增长,对于许多社区成员来说,住房正在变得遥不可及。随着住房负担能力的下降,早期与 COVID 相关的财政支持(特别是与住房相关的财政支持)的大部分已经到期。然而,令人鼓舞的是,随着最新的 COVID 疫情恶化,正在为家庭和企业推出更多措施。


“另一方面,创纪录的低抵押贷款利率以及利率将在很长一段时间内保持低位的前景正在积压需求。住宅销售量比五年平均水平高出约 40%,而活跃上市量仍比五年平均水平低约 -26%。需求与广告供应之间的不匹配仍然是给房价带来上行压力的一个关键因素,”劳利斯先生说。

每个首府城市的房价上涨速度都放缓了。悉尼的降幅最大,月度资本收益从 3 月份的 3.7% 下降到 7 月份的 2.0%。根据 Lawless 先生的说法,“在某种程度上,悉尼是房价最昂贵的首府城市,也是今年前七个月房价涨幅最大的城市。不断恶化的负担能力可能是这里经济放缓的一个关键因素,同时随着城市进入延长的封锁期,对消费者信心的负面影响也是如此。”


尽管增长速度已经放缓,但该国大部分地区的房价继续以远高于平均水平的速度上涨。


此前相对于首府城市而言,郊区市场的强劲表现已在 2021 年恢复正常。在 2020 年下半年,澳大利亚综合郊区的房地产市场状况更加强劲之后,2021 年前七个月的增长率几乎相同区域和资本市场的住宅价值分别上涨了 14.5% 和 14.0%。

Growth cycle tapering as housing becomes less affordable

Tim Lawless


2 Aug 2021

ustralian housing values increased a further 1.6% in July, according to CoreLogic’s national home value index.  The latest rise takes housing values 14.1% higher over the first seven months of the year and 16.1% higher over the past twelve months.  


CoreLogic's research director, Tim Lawless, described the market as strong, but losing steam.  “The 16.1% lift in national housing values over the past year is the fastest pace of annual growth since February 2004, however the monthly growth rate has been trending lower since March this year when the national index rose 2.8%.” 


Mr Lawless attributes the lower rate of growth in housing values to several factors.  “With dwelling values rising more in a month than incomes are rising in a year, housing is moving out of reach for many members of the community.  Along with declining home affordability, much of the earlier COVID related fiscal support (particularly fiscal support related to housing) has expired. It is however, encouraging to see additional measures being rolled out for households and businesses as the latest COVID outbreak worsens.


“On the flip side, demand is being stocked by record low mortgage rates and the prospect that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.  Dwelling sales are tracking approximately 40% above the five-year average while active listings remain about -26% below the five-year average.  The mismatch between demand and advertised supply remains a key factor placing upwards pressure on housing prices,” Mr Lawless said.


Index results as at July 31, 2021


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The pace of dwelling price appreciation has slowed across each of the capital cities. Sydney has recorded the sharpest reduction, with the monthly capital gain falling from 3.7% in March to 2.0% in July.  According to Mr Lawless, “Sydney is the most expensive capital city by some margin and it has also been the city where values have risen the most over the first seven months of the year. Worsening affordability is likely a key contributing factor in the slowdown here, along with the negative impact on consumer sentiment as the city moves through an extended lockdown period.”


Although the pace of growth has slowed, housing values continue to rise at a rate that is well above average across most areas of the country.  


The previously stronger performance across regional markets relative to the capital cities has normalised through 2021.  After the combined regional areas of Australia recorded stronger housing market conditions through the second half of 2020, the first seven months of 2021 shows an almost equal rate of growth in dwelling values across the combined regional and capital markets with values up 14.5% and 14.0% respectively. 

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