[返回悉尼房产首页]·[所有跟帖]·[ 回复本帖 ] ·[热门原创] ·[繁體閱讀]·[坛主管理]

房屋成交量创近12年新高

送交者: Lk1970[♂☆★破虏大将军★☆♂] 于 2021-09-20 0:50 已读 36716 次  

Lk1970的个人频道

+关注
房屋成交量创近12年新高

Tim Lawless


16 Sep 2021

CoreLogic 估计,在截至 2021 年 8 月的一年中,澳大利亚的房屋和单元房销售量接近 598,000 套;自 2004 年以来的最高年销售额,比前 12 个月的年销售额增长了 42%。在全国范围内,过去一年的住宅销售数量比十年平均水平高出 31%,比 20 年平均水平高出 24%。

在各州,年度房屋销售量大幅高于一年前,除塔斯马尼亚州外,每个州和领地的房屋销售量均同比增长 10% 以上。塔斯马尼亚州的销售额增幅较小,8 月底广告供应量比平均水平低约 35%,这可能更多地归因于供应不足而不是需求短缺。


年度房屋销售同比增幅最大的是西澳大利亚州和北领地等先前疲软的市场,这些市场正在迎头赶上。房屋销售额同比分别增长了 62% 和 59%,而昆士兰的销售额同比增长了 54%。

在海外移民停滞不前的情况下,住房需求的如此显着激增似乎令人惊讶,但房屋销售的大幅增长可以解释为国内需求从先前的低水平上升。


由于信贷条件收紧、住房负担能力变得更具挑战性以及印花税等交易成本随着价格上涨而变得越来越昂贵,因此房屋周转率(年度房屋销售占总住宅的百分比)从 2015 年底开始呈下降趋势。全国成交量在 2019 年 6 月创下历史新低,当年只有 3.7% 的澳大利亚房屋成交。此后信贷政策放松,抵押贷款利率降至历史低点,鼓励更多澳大利亚人参与房地产市场。此外,自 2020 年 3 月以来家庭储蓄率上升提高了消费者存款水平和抵押贷款服务能力,而印花税优惠和存款担保等政府激励措施也支持了需求。


到 2021 年 8 月底,房屋成交率已上升至 5.6%,为 2009 年 12 月以来的最高水平。

在各州中,昆士兰州的营业额最高,截至 8 月的一年中,该州有 6.8% 的房产成交,这是自 2008 年 6 月结束的 12 个月以来阳光州最强劲的营业额水平。与新南威尔士州和维多利亚州相比,州际移民以及相对负担得起的房价。


ACT 去年的房屋周转率位居第二,销售率为 6.0%。与昆士兰州类似,堪培拉的住房市场在考虑与收入相比的住宅价格时相对实惠。投资活动的大幅提升也有助于解释周转率较高的原因,投资者贷款的价值从 2020 年 1 月占所有贷款的 17.1% 上升至 2021 年 7 月的近 31%。


成交量是北领地最低的,过去一年只有 3.7% 的房产交易,高于去年 6 月的近期低点,当时只有 2.4% 的房产全年交易。尽管过去一年房屋销售量飙升近 60%,但整个北领地的年销售额仍比 20 年平均水平低 12%,这突显出之前增长周期的需求强劲。


维多利亚州的房屋成交率在过去一年中排名倒数第二,过去 12 个月中有 4.6% 的房产成交。较弱的营业额读数受到多次封锁以及住房负担能力恶化的影响。此外,大量新建住宅增加了该州的整体住房供应。在过去五年中,维多利亚州的住宅数量增加了 280,900 套,是所有州或领地中增幅最大的。

考虑到年度销售量尚未达到峰值,房屋成交量可能会进一步增加。然而,从中期来看,我们预计营业额可能会在 2022 年初达到顶峰。已经有证据表明每月房屋销售数量开始放缓,尽管阅读封锁的额外中断使趋势更难以解释。


尽管LOCK DOWN 后活动可能会增加,但由于多种因素,房屋销售在中期内可能会减少:


大多数首府城市和区域住房市场的房价与家庭收入之比正在创下历史新高。不断恶化的负担能力可能会逐渐阻止更多买家参与住房市场。

重新关注贷款标准可能会加剧负担能力方面的挑战。随着政策制定者和贷方越来越关注贷款质量,存款较少或相对于收入而言贷款/债务水平较高的借款人可能会发现获得贷款更加困难。

整体库存水平的提升。随着澳大利亚住宅建筑活动的广泛增长,即使房屋销售数量保持稳定,也可能会抑制周转率。

低至零的海外移民将逐渐影响住房需求。海外移民数据停滞对租赁需求的影响更为直接和直接,尤其是墨尔本和悉尼的内城高层区域(尽管这些内城区域的租金现在正在上涨)。然而,倾向于先租后买的永久移民的需求管道在一段时间内不太可能得到补充。

 

抵消这些不利因素的事实是,抵押贷款利率将在很长一段时间内保持在历史低位,随着封锁的缓解和劳动力市场的收紧,经济状况应该会有所改善。

从长远来看,摆脱印花税等房地产交易抑制因素将有助于支持更高的营业额。 CoreLogic 之前的研究表明,交易成本以及提高存款是住房负担能力的最大障碍。

Housing turnover reaches the highest level in nearly 12 years

Tim Lawless


16 Sep 2021

CoreLogic estimates there were almost 598,000 house and unit sales across Australia over the year ending August 2021; the highest number of annual sales since 2004 and a 42% lift on the annual number of sales over the previous 12-month period.  Nationally, the number of dwellings sold over the past year was 31% above the decade average and 24% higher than the 20-year average.


Across the states, annual home sales are substantially higher than a year ago, with every state and territory, apart from Tasmania, recording a lift of more than 10% in year-on-year home sales.  The smaller increase in sales across Tasmania, where advertised supply was tracking approximately 35% below average at the end of August, is probably more attributable to a lack of supply than a shortage of demand.


The largest year-on-year increase in annual home sales can be seen in the previously weaker markets of Western Australia and Northern Territory where the market is playing catch up.  Year-on-year home sales have risen by 62% and 59% respectively, while Queensland has recorded a 54% lift in year-on-year sales. 


Such a significant surge in housing demand may seem surprising at a time when overseas migration has stalled, however the substantial rise in home sales can be explained by a lift in domestic demand from previously low levels.


Housing turnover (annual home sales as a percentage of total dwellings) trended lower from late 2015 as credit conditions tightened, housing affordability became more challenging and transaction costs such as stamp duty became increasingly expensive as prices rose.  National turnover reached a record low in June 2019 when only 3.7% of Australian homes transacted over the year.  Since then credit policies have loosened and mortgage rates have reduced to record lows, encouraging more Australians to participate in the housing market.  Additionally, a higher rate of household savings since March 2020 has boosted consumer deposit levels and mortgage serviceability, while government incentives such as stamp duty concessions and deposit guarantees have also supported demand. 


By the end of August 2021, housing turnover had risen to 5.6%, the highest rate since December 2009.


Across the states, turnover was the highest in Queensland, where 6.8% of properties transacted over the year to August, the Sunshine State’s strongest turnover level since the 12-months ending June 2008.  The higher rate of turnover is being supported by a surge in interstate migration along with relatively affordable housing prices compared to New South Wales and Victoria.


The ACT recorded the second highest rate of housing turnover in the last year, with 6.0% of properties selling.  Similar to Queensland, Canberra’s housing market is relatively affordable when considering dwelling prices compared to incomes.  A substantial lift in investment activity also helps to explain the higher rate of turnover, with the value of investor lending rising from 17.1% of all lending in January 2020 to almost 31% in July 2021.


Turnover was the lowest in the Northern Territory, with only 3.7% of properties trading over the past year, up from a recent low in June last year when only 2.4% of properties transacted over the year.  Despite home sales surging almost 60% over the past year, annual sales were still 12% below the 20-year average across the NT, highlighting how strong demand has been through previous growth cycles.


Victoria shows the second lowest rate of housing turnover over the past year, with 4.6% of properties transacting over the past 12 months.  The weaker turnover reading has been impacted by multiple lockdowns as well as worsening housing affordability.  Also, a large number of newly built dwellings has added to the state’s overall housing supply. Over the past five years, Victoria’s dwelling count has increased by 280,900, the largest increase of any state or territory.  


Housing turnover is likely to increase a little further from here, considering the annual number of sales is yet to peak. However, over the medium term, we expect turnover is likely to peak in early 2022. There is already evidence the monthly number of home sales is starting to ease, although reading through the additional disruption of lockdowns makes the trends harder to interpret.  


Although there may be a rise in activity post-lockdown, home sales are likely to reduce over the medium term due to a number of factors:


The ratio of housing prices to household incomes is moving to new record highs across most of the capital cities and regional housing markets.  Worsening affordability is likely to progressively prevent more buyers from participating in the housing market.Renewed focus on lending standards could amplify affordability challenges.  With policy makers and lenders becoming more focussed on the quality of lending, it’s likely borrowers with small deposits or high loan/debt levels relative to their incomes will find it harder to secure a loan.  A lift in overall stock levels. As Australia moves through a broad-based upswing in residential construction activity, it could dampen the turnover rate even if the number of home sales remains steady.Low to nil overseas migration will progressively weigh on housing demand. The impact of stalled overseas migration figures had a more direct and immediate impact on rental demand, especially inner-city high-rise precincts of Melbourne and Sydney (although rents in these inner-city precincts are now rising). However, the pipeline of demand from permanent migrants, who tend to rent first and progressively buy, is not likely to be replenished for some time.
 

Offsetting these headwinds is the fact that mortgage rates are set to remain at record lows for an extended period of time, economic conditions should improve as lockdowns ease and labour markets tighten.  


Longer term, a move away from property transaction disincentives, such as stamp duty, would help to support higher turnover.  Previous research from CoreLogic showed transactional costs, along with raising a deposit, were the biggest barriers to housing affordability.  

喜欢Lk1970朋友的这个贴子的话, 请点这里投票,“赞”助支持!

内容来自网友分享,若违规或者侵犯您的权益,请联系我们

所有跟帖:   ( 主贴楼主有权删除不文明回复,拉黑不受欢迎的用户 )


用户名: 密码: [--注册ID--]

标 题:

粗体 斜体 下划线 居中 插入图片插入图片 插入Flash插入Flash动画


     图片上传  Youtube代码器  预览辅助



[ 留园条例 ] [ 广告服务 ] [ 联系我们 ] [ 个人帐户 ] [ 创建您的定制新论坛频道 ] [ Contact us ]