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澳房地产繁荣不会失去动力

送交者: Lk1970[♂☆★破虏大将军★☆♂] 于 2021-08-31 22:02 已读 34250 次  

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随着8月份全国房价再上涨1.5%,澳大利亚房地产繁荣

不会失去动力

Tim Lawless


1 Sep 2021

尽管受到封锁的影响,澳大利亚的住房价值继续录得广泛上涨。根据 CoreLogic 的全国房屋价值指数,8 月份住宅价值上涨了 1.5%;增长率仍远高于平均水平,但为 1 月份以来的最低月度增长率。


房价上涨的基础仍然广泛,除了达尔文 (-0.1%) 之外,每个首府城市的房价都在整个月上涨,尽管重要的是要注意 CoreLogic 隐瞒了珀斯和西澳地区指数的结果等待解决与西澳其他住房市场衡量标准的差异。


8月份的房屋价值指数进一步证实了价格增长率在经历了今年 3 月份的高

峰后正在放缓.

当时,全国房价在一个月内上涨了 2.8%,其中悉尼的房价上涨了 3.7%。
根据 CoreLogic 的研究主管 Tim Lawless 的说法,与持续的封锁相比,增长速度放缓可能更多地与日益严重的负担能力限制有关。


“过去一年,房价上涨速度几乎是工资增长的 11 倍,这为尚未拥有房屋的人设置了更大的进入壁垒。封锁对消费者情绪产生了明显影响,但迄今为止,这些限制导致广告挂牌数量下降,并在较小程度上导致房屋销售减少,对价格增长势头的影响较小。可供购买的房产持续短缺很可能是房价上涨压力的核心。”


8 月份的最新数据显示,今年前 8 个月澳大利亚的房价上涨了 15.8%,比一年前的水平上涨了 18.4%。以澳元计算,全国住宅价值的年增长约为 103,400 澳元,即每周 1,990 澳元。相比之下,澳大利亚的工资以年均 1.7% 的速度增长。


截至 2021 年 8 月 31 日的指数结果


请注意,在我们调查与其他住房市场衡量指标的差异时,珀斯和西澳的指数已暂时撤回。综合指数(合并首都、合并区域和国家)包括来自西澳的相对较小的权重,因此请在您的解释中考虑到这些信息,直到问题得到解决。


根据 Tim Lawless 的说法,这是自 1989 年 7 月结束以来的最快年度房价增长速度。“通过 1980 年代后期,全国房价年增长率高达 31%,因此市场并没有相当在前所未有的领域。目前的年增长率呈上升趋势,实际上是三十年平均年增长率的3.6倍。


与单元房相比,首府城市房屋继续录得更强劲的增长率,但性能差距似乎正在缩小。在今年第一季度,首府城市房屋价值的每月上涨速度比单元房快约 1.1 个百分点。到 8 月,平均绩效差距缩小到 0.7 个百分点。 Lawless 先生认为,
房屋价值和单元房价值增长的趋同可能是负担能力变得更具挑战性的另一

个证明。

Australian housing boom continues to lose steam as national home values rise another 1.5% in August

Tim Lawless


1 Sep 2021

Australian housing values continued to record a broad-based rise despite the disruption from lockdowns.  According to CoreLogic’s national home value index, dwelling values rose 1.5% in August; a rate of growth that is still well above average, but the lowest monthly rise since January.


The lift in housing values continues to be broad-based, with every capital city, apart from Darwin (-0.1%) recording a rise in values throughout the month, although it is important to note CoreLogic has withheld the Perth and Regional WA index results pending the resolution of a divergence from other housing market measurements in WA.


The August home value index provides further confirmation that the rate of price growth is moderating after moving through a peak in March of this year.  At that time, national home values had risen 2.8% in a month, led by Sydney where dwelling values were up 3.7%.  According to CoreLogic's research director, Tim Lawless, the slowing rate of growth probably has more to do with worsening affordability constraints than ongoing lockdowns.


“Housing prices have risen almost 11 times faster than wages growth over the past year, creating a more significant barrier to entry for those who don’t yet own a home.  Lockdowns are having a clear impact on consumer sentiment, however to date the restrictions have resulted in falling advertised listings and, to a lesser extent, fewer home sales, with less impact on price growth momentum.  It’s likely the ongoing shortage of properties available for purchase is central to the upwards pressure on housing values.”


The August update takes Australian housing values 15.8% higher over the first eight months of the year and 18.4% above levels a year ago.  In dollar terms, the annual increase in national dwelling values equates to approximately $103,400, or $1,990 per week.  In comparison, Australian wages are rising at the average annual rate of 1.7%.


Index results as at August 31, 2021


Note hedonic indices for Perth and WA have been temporarily withdrawn while we investigate a divergence from other housing market measurements. Aggregate indices (combined capitals, combined regional and national) include a relatively small weighting from WA, therefore please make some allowance for this information in your interpretation until the issue is resolved.


According to Tim Lawless, this is the fastest annual pace of growth in housing values since the year ending July 1989.  “Through the late 1980’s, the annual pace of national home value appreciation was as high as 31%, so the market isn’t quite in unprecedented territory.  The annual growth rate at the moment is trending higher, in fact, it is 3.6 times higher than the thirty-year average rate of annual growth.”


Capital city houses are continuing to record a stronger growth rate relative to units, however the performance gap does appear to be narrowing.  Throughout the first quarter of the year, capital city house values were rising approximately 1.1 percentage points faster than units each month.  By August the average performance gap reduced to 0.7 percentage points.  Mr Lawless believes the convergence of growth in house values and unit values could be another demonstration of affordability becoming more challenging.

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