封城期间的春季销售季节是什么样的？
Eliza Owen

18 Aug 2021
距离 2021 年春季销售旺季还有不到两周的时间，首都领地、大墨尔本地区和新南威尔士州，北领地的主要中心都陷入了紧急封锁状态。

在 COVID-19 之前的十年中，销售量和挂牌量通常会从 9 月到 11 月上升。季节性对价格的影响很小，因为买家需求和房地产供应都会在整个季节增加。
数据显示，与整个十年的平均水平相比，每月新增到市场上待售的新房
源在全国范围内增加了 15.7%（新房源是一个月内新加入市场的广告库
存）。这相当于过去十年中每月新增约 42,100 个新房源的历史平均水
平，而春季月份为 48,700 个。

销售量并没有受到强烈的季节性影响，整个春季的几个月澳大利亚约有 40,000 笔交易，而整个十年的平均水平为 37,500 笔。

首府城市而非地区的销售和挂牌量往往是季节性最强的，悉尼和首都领地的新挂牌量在春季的增长尤为强劲。为了了解这对现在处于封锁状态的地区意味着什么，可以从去年墨尔本的房地产市场结果中获得一些见解。

2020 年封锁的教训

通过封锁观察住房市场表现表明，销售和挂牌量都将因封锁而下降。这意味着在当前的封锁期间，墨尔本、首都领地和新南威尔士州的交易活动可能会受到抑制。
该图表显示，在封锁期间到 2020 年下半年，市场上增加的新房源迅速大
幅减少，而此时新房源通常会持续增加。在截至 9 月 6 日的四个星期
内，市场上仅增加了 1,411 套待售房源，比前五年平均水平低 80.7%。

多种因素导致锁定中的列表耗尽，包括：

消费者信心低下，并认为供应商可能无法以最佳价格出售其财产

抵押贷款还款延期和政府家庭支持，限制了不良资产的出售——即，被
迫出售的人减少

由于越来越多地以虚拟方式进行检查和拍卖，房产交易变得更加困难

随着 10 月底宣布放宽限制，新上市量开始迅速上升，显示出供应商围绕限制行为的弹性。放宽限制后，新发布的广告股票恢复得非常快。

有趣的是，到 2020 年 12 月的新上市量平均比前五年的平均水平高出 40.
4%，这表明 2020 年的春季销售旺季被“推迟”到了今年的最后几个月。
图 2 中还展示了 2021 年，该图显示了通过更短的锁定期，挂牌量的波动性更大，随着限制的放松，交易量不断恢复。到 2021 年的新上市量也高于前五年的平均水平，这可能部分是由于 COVID-19 病例得到更多控制而通过市场锁定推迟销售决定的结果。

在墨尔本的销售活动中也可以看到类似的趋势，该活动也因长期封锁而受到抑制，但随后强劲复苏。这是因为经济和住房市场通过 COVID 保持相对稳定，这意味着住房购买决定更有可能只是因为封锁而推迟，而不是完全放弃。 COVID 期间销量的另一个有趣特征是限制的放松与季节性趋势背道而驰。通过封锁抑制的销售活动实际上导致了 2020 年 12 月和 2021 年 7 月整个墨尔本的销售量增加，这是季节性的，销售量通常会增加。
What does Spring selling season look like in lockdown?
Eliza Owen

18 Aug 2021
Less than two weeks out from the spring selling season of 2021, lockdown conditions are in place across the ACT, Greater Melbourne and NSW. More recently, major centres across the Northern Territory have been plunged into a snap lockdown. 
In the decade prior to COVID-19, sales and listings volumes would typically rise from September to November. The seasonal impact on prices is fairly marginal, as both buyer demand and property supply would increase over the season. 
The tables below show the percentage difference between average sales and listings numbers through each of the seasons over the past decade, and the average for the entire decade. In this instance, the numbers reflect the ten years to December 2019, prior to COVID-induced lockdowns across Australia. 
Figure 1. Percentage difference between decade average sales and listings, and decade average by season

The data shows that on a monthly basis, new listings added to the market for sale increased 15.7% nationally compared to the full decade average (where new listings are advertised stock that has been freshly added to the market over the course of the month). This equates to a historic average of around 42,100 new listings added to the market monthly over the past decade, compared with 48,700 through the months of spring.
Sales volumes do not see as strong a seasonal effect, with around 40,000 transactions across Australia through the months of spring, compared with 37,500 across the full decade average.
Both sales and listings tend to be most seasonal in the capital cities rather than the regions, with the uplift in new listings volumes particularly strong across spring time in Sydney and the ACT. In order to understand what this means for regions now in lockdown, some insight can be gained from housing market outcomes through Melbourne last year.
Lessons from 2020 lockdowns
Observing housing market performance through lockdowns reveals that both sales and listings volumes will fall through lockdowns. This means transaction activity is likely to be subdued across Melbourne, the ACT and NSW through the duration of the current lockdowns. 
Greater Melbourne was subject to a second wave of restrictions in 2020, from mid-July to late October, well into the spring of 2020. The chart below compares the rolling 28-day count of new listings added to the market over the year, compared with the previous five year average, and 2021. 
 Figure 2. Rolling 28-day count of newly advertised property - Melbourne

The chart shows a rapid and substantial reduction in new listings being added to the market over the course of the lockdowns through the second half on 2020, at a time when new listings would usually be rising consistently. At its lowest count, just 1,411 listings were added to the market for sale in the four weeks to September 6th, which was 80.7% below the previous five-year average. 
A combination of factors led to depleted listings in lockdown, including:

Low levels of consumer confidence, and the belief that vendors may not get an optimal price for the sale of their propertyMortgage repayment deferrals and government household support, which limited the sale of distressed property – ie, less people were forced to sell Property being harder to transact, as inspections and auctions were increasingly conducted virtually

As the easing of restrictions was announced towards the end of October, new listing volumes began to rise rapidly, showing the elasticity of vendor behaviour around restrictions. Newly advertised stock recovered remarkably quickly following the easing of restrictions. 
Interestingly, new listings volumes through December 2020 trended an average 40.4% higher than the previous five-year average, suggesting the spring selling season of 2020 was ‘pushed back’ into the final months of the year. 2021 is also presented in Figure 2, which shows more volatility in listings volumes through shorter lockdowns, with volumes continually recovering as restrictions ease. New listings through 2021 are also more elevated than the previous five year average, which may in part be the result of postponed selling decisions through lockdowns coming onto the market as COVID-19 cases were more contained. 
A similar trend can be seen in Melbourne across sales activity, which has also been subdued through extended lockdowns, but recovers strongly afterward. This is because the relative stability of the economy and housing market through COVID has meant that housing purchasing decisions were more likely to have just been postponed through lockdowns, rather than abandoned all together. Another interesting feature of sales volumes through the COVID period is that the easing of restrictions has defied seasonal trends. Suppressed sales activity through lockdowns actually led to an increase in sales across Melbourne in December of 2020 and July 2021, a time when seasonally, sales volumes would usually be far more subdued. 
Figure 3. Monthly volume of sales - Melbourne

Across Greater Melbourne, the ACT and NSW, similar declines in transaction activity are already very apparent. In Sydney for example, new listings added to the market have been trending down since the announcement of city-wide restrictions in late June (Figure 4). Sales volumes across Sydney fell -7.4% in June and -2.7% over the month of July.
Figure 4. Rolling 28-day count of new listings advertised for sale - Sydney
Despite the current slowdown in transaction activity, previous lockdown conditions have seen a robust recovery in sales volumes and vendor activity. There are tailwinds in place for housing market demand to suggest this may happen again; household savings rates remain elevated, new average mortgage rates continue to reach new record lows, and many government fiscal stimulus and broader institutional responses have been resurrected amid renewed lockdowns. This could see elevated transaction activity through the summer of 2021/2022 should restrictions be eased by then. 
However, headwinds for the housing market should also be considered. Rising affordability constraints had already seen a downward trend in first home buyer activity since the start of 2021. Some arrangements that supported economic and housing conditions through 2020 lockdowns, such as JobKeeper and HomeBuilder, have not been re-surfaced this year for regions in lockdown, and may dampen the rebound in demand. Another factor to consider is the more uncertain nature of the delta variant, with this more contagious strain of the virus having the potential to make lockdowns more frequent until the vast majority of Australians are vaccinated. This could disrupt income streams, impacting the robustness of housing demand. 
A key trend to watch for as lockdowns are lifted is whether a lift in new advertised supply is met with a commensurate lift in buyer activity.  With affordability constraints becoming a larger obstacle in the market, as well as the potential for tighter credit conditions further down the track, if buyer activity does not match the lift in listings we could see a gradual rebalancing between sellers and buyers.  
The past twelve months has seen demand outweighing advertised supply, creating strong selling conditions and some urgency amongst buyers.  If supply and demand become more evenly balanced, this could be another factor dampening the level of value growth later this year.