澳大利亚房地产市场回暖推动 3 月季度盈利转售率超过 90%
CoreLogic
24 Jun 2021
CoreLogic 2021 年 3 月季度的“痛苦与收获”报告发现，在 2021 年 1 月至 2021 年 3 月期间，全国转售获利的比例从上一季度的 89.1% 上升至 90.3%，而 COVID 引起的三个月内的低点为 86.0%。 
CoreLogic 分析了自 2021 年 3 月季度以来在澳大利亚的大约 98,000 次转售。该国不同的房地产市场反映了痛苦或收益规模的差异，澳大利亚偏远地区连续第五个季度继续其亏损转售的下降轨迹，公寓亏本出售的可能性是其两倍多房屋和自住业主的盈利率高于投资者。
CoreLogic 澳大利亚研究部主管 Eliza Owen 表示，由于澳大利亚住宅价值显着增长，房地产卖家的利润率有所提高。
“在 2020 年 9 月市场触底反弹到 2021 年 3 月结束之间，澳大利亚的住宅价值上涨了 8.2%。 2021 年第一季度，卖家在全国范围内获得的总利润为 306 亿澳元。这实际上低于 12 月季度的 322 亿澳元，但这可能反映了今年年初销售活动的季节性下降。
“2021 年 3 月也是连续第四个季度，澳大利亚郊区转售的盈利率高于首府城市市场。 90.6% 的郊区转售在本季度实现了盈利，而首府城市的这一比例为 90.0%。然而，省会城市和郊区之间的利润率差距已经缩小，并且可能会继续缩小，因为 4 月和 5 月，省会城市的增长率已经接近郊区价值增长率。
“虽然第一季度独立屋和公寓的亏损转售有所减少，但公寓细分市场的亏损销售率仍然大幅上升。在截至 3 月的三个月中，澳大利亚有 16.8% 的郊区亏本出售；几乎是房屋销售亏损率 (6.8%) 的两倍半，”欧文女士说。
该报告还考察了生活方式市场、资源型住房市场和墨尔本 LGA 单元市场的转售表现。
欧文女士说：“‘海变’和‘树木变化’市场在整个 3 月季度的销售利润率普遍上升，其中巴拉瑞特销售额在 3 月季度实现了惊人的 99.5%。
“整个西澳和北领地的资源型住房市场的亏损销售率仍然很高，但他们也看到亏损销售率下降最快，因为采矿活动的增加正在促进住房的快速复苏趋势市场。西澳内陆北部 SA4 市场尤其如此，其中包括皮尔巴拉地区。亏损销售已从 2020 年 3 月季度所有转售的 63.6% 上升到 2021 年 3 月季度转售的 37.0%。
“尽管价值普遍上涨，但澳大利亚房地产市场仍然存在风险。
本季度，我们看了一下墨尔本LGA公寓市场的案例。亏损公寓转售量创历史新高，达173台，但这是在整体销量上升的背景下，仍未达到高峰比例。对于该地区，投资者的销售可能是由于租金价值在一年内下跌超过 20% 而引发的。只要 COVID 对国际旅行和内城经济活动构成压力，这个市场的表现就可能会受到抑制。”
展望未来，欧文女士说：“总体而言，广泛的房地产市场上涨继续支持住房市场转售盈利能力的提高。然而，由于住宅市场的价值创历史新高，买家需要警惕潜在的不利因素。在国家层面，这些包括负担能力限制、最终的抵押贷款利率上升以及 COVID 集群的剩余威胁。
“对于市场的某些部分，持续的国际边境关闭已经导致价格增长更加疲软，租金回报下降。这些因素可能会减缓未来几个季度来自住房的盈利能力的增长。”
Australia’s property market upswing pushes rate of 
profit-making resales over 90 per cent in March quarter
CoreLogic

24 Jun 2021

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for the March 2021 quarter found the portion of profit making resales between January and March 2021 increased to 90.3% nationally, up from 89.1% in the previous quarter and the COVID-induced low of 86.0% in the three months to June 2020.  
CoreLogic analysed approximately 98,000 resales across Australia from the March 2021 quarter. Variations in the scale of pain or gain are reflected across the different housing markets in the country, with regional Australia continuing its downward trajectory of loss-making resales for the fifth consecutive quarter, units were more than twice as likely to sell at a loss as houses, and owner occupiers enjoyed a higher incidence of profitability than investors.
Eliza Owen, Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic, says increases in the rate of profit for real estate sellers have come off the back of remarkable growth in Australian dwelling values.

“Between the market bottoming out in September 2020, and the end of March 2021, Australian dwelling values have risen 8.2%. The total profit reaped by sellers in Q1 2021 was $30.6 billion nationally. This is actually down from $32.2 billion in the December quarter, but that is likely a reflection of seasonally lower sales activity through the start of the year.

“March 2021 also marked the fourth consecutive quarter where regional Australian resales sustained a higher rate of profitability than in the capital city markets. 90.6% of regional resales saw a profit through the quarter, compared with 90.0% of capital city sales. However, the gap in the rate of profit seen between capital cities and regions has narrowed, and is likely to keep narrowing given capital city growth rates have been closer to regional value growth rates through April and May.
“While there were fewer loss making resales across both houses and units in Q1, the rate of loss making sales remains substantially elevated in the unit segment. In the three months to March, 16.8% of units sold for a loss across Australia; almost two and a half times the rate of loss making house sales (6.8%),” says Ms Owen.

The report also takes a look at resale performance across lifestyle markets, resource based housing markets and Melbourne LGA’s unit market.
Ms Owen says “‘Sea change’ and ‘tree change’ markets have generally seen an uplift in the rate of profit making sales through the March quarter, including an extraordinary 99.5% of Ballarat sales making a profit through the March quarter. 

“Resource-based housing markets across WA and the NT still have elevated rates of loss making sales, but they are also seeing the fastest decline in the rate of loss making sales, as increasing mining activity is contributing to a rapid recovery trend in the housing market. This particularly true of the WA Outback North SA4 market, which includes the Pilbara region. Loss making sales have gone from 63.6% of all resales in the March 2020 quarter, to 37.0% of resales in the March 2021 quarter. 

“There are still pockets of risk in the Australian housing market, despite a broad based upswing in values. This quarter, we took a look at the case of the Melbourne LGA unit market. The volume of loss-making unit resales had reached a record high at 173. However, this is in the context of rising overall sales volumes, and still wasn’t at a peak proportion. For this region, investor sales may have been triggered by rental values falling more than 20% over the year. As long as COVID weighs on international travel and inner-city economic activity, this market is likely to see subdued performance.”
Looking ahead, Ms Owen says “Overall, a broad based housing market upswing continues to support improved profitability in housing market resales. However, with the dwelling market at extraordinary record high values, there are potential headwinds for buyers to be cautious of. At the national level, these include affordability constraints, eventual mortgage rate rises and the remaining threat of COVID clusters. 
“For some pockets of the market, ongoing international border closures have already led to more subdued price growth, and a decline in rental return. These factors may slow the growth in profitability derived from housing in the coming quarters.”
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